JPMorgan dự đoán S&P 500 có thể đạt 9.000 vào giữa năm 2027 nhờ sự tăng trưởng của AI

The Huoxing Finance report states that on May 25, JPMorgan Chase, in its latest report, indicated that although this is not its base case scenario, the S&P 500 could rise to 9,000 points by mid-2027, driven by the continuation of the technology capital expenditure cycle, expanding AI-related profit contributions, and improved market risk appetite. The institution believes the market may currently be underestimating the probability of this upside scenario. If the index reaches 9,000 points, it would imply approximately 20% upside from current levels. The report notes that the technology, media, and telecommunications sectors remain the key drivers for further index gains, particularly whether AI investments can sustainably translate into corporate revenue and profit growth, which will determine whether U.S. equities can enter the next upward phase. However, there are significant divergences in market views: the mainstream Wall Street perspective holds that after the rapid rebound from March lows, U.S. equities are likely to enter a consolidation phase in the short term. Persistently rising global bond yields will suppress consumer spending and corporate investment, thereby slowing economic growth. Energy shocks triggered by the situation in Iran, which have elevated inflation and fuel prices, have also become a key risk factor closely monitored by central banks worldwide. Additionally, based on historical patterns, prolonged periods of high returns are difficult to sustain. Melissa Brown, Managing Director of Investment Decision Research at SimCorp, cited long-term market statistics indicating that since 1926, U.S. equities have only achieved four consecutive years of annualized returns exceeding 15% on three occasions—such scenarios are extremely rare. Brown also noted that after three consecutive years of annualized returns exceeding 20%, the average return in the fourth year was only 3.9%, far below the historical average of 11.8%. She acknowledged that historical data cannot definitively determine this year’s trajectory, as AI-related sectors still hold potential to drive market strength. However, if this year indeed delivers low double-digit growth, the likelihood of further market advances next year will diminish significantly.