JPMorgan dự báo chi tiêu vốn vào AI sẽ đạt 870 tỷ USD vào năm 2026, chuyển sang giai đoạn thương mại hóa

The J.P. Morgan report on July 20 forecasts that global AI-related capital expenditures will reach nearly $870 billion in 2026, a 77% year-over-year increase, with hyperscalers contributing approximately $750 billion. In 2027, Google’s capital expenditures are estimated at around $300 billion, Amazon at $300 billion, and Meta at $200 billion. The bond financing of the five major tech giants rose from $40–50 billion in 2022 to approximately $190 billion in 2026, and Google completed an $85 billion equity financing in June. J.P. Morgan believes the investment logic for AI is shifting from competing on capital expenditures to competing on commercial monetization, with hyperscalers offering a better risk-reward profile than AI hardware over the medium term. Semiconductor revenue growth this year, excluding memory, is expected to exceed 30%, but the hardware sector has recently corrected by approximately 15%. Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and NVIDIA will陆续 release their earnings reports, with capital expenditure guidance serving as the key indicator.