Đồng sáng lập Glassnode: Bitcoin có thể đang ở gần vùng đáy từ $46.000–$54.000

The Huoxing Finance report states that Rafael, co-founder of Glassnode, posted an analysis on X platform regarding the recent price movement of Bitcoin. He noted that Bitcoin’s current price range is around $62,000, having declined nearly 50% from its all-time high and 24% over the past month. The price has broken through the upper band of its valuation framework and entered a cluster of historical valuation levels associated with past cycle bottoms. Rafael further emphasized that market bottoms cannot be confirmed in advance but can only be defined by probability ranges and key price levels. Bitcoin has fallen below the median holder breakeven line for the first time since December 2022 and is now situated within a broader support range: the median realized price is approximately $64,100, and the 200-week moving average is around $61,700. The current high-probability bottom zone may lie between $46,000 and $54,000; the range below this at $35,000–$40,000 represents a rare “selling tail.” It should be noted that the magnitude of cycle corrections is gradually decreasing: previous cycle lows saw declines of approximately 85%, 84%, and 77%, whereas this cycle has only declined by about 50%, suggesting that the high-probability bottom is more likely to be located in the upper range, though extreme selling cannot be ruled out.