Nhà kinh tế học chỉ trích chỉ số lạm phát ưa thích của Fed là không đáng tin cậy

The Huoxing Finance report states that on June 16, Federal Reserve Chair Powell expressed a preference for an alternative inflation measure—the "trimmed-mean PCE inflation"—which excludes extreme values before calculating the weighted average. Brian Bethune, economics professor at Boston College, said that the trimmed-mean PCE is not currently the most reliable indicator. In short, this metric performs best when inflation shocks resemble those seen between 2009 and 2019 (i.e., before the 2020 COVID-19 crisis), as there was a better balance between positive and negative shocks. However, when price shocks are primarily driven by positive factors—such as supply disruptions, tariffs, soaring oil prices, or major special sporting events (e.g., the World Cup)—this indicator tends to understate inflation. "Therefore, I hope someone will challenge him on this," said Bethune. But regardless of which metric is referenced, U.S. inflation has remained above the Fed’s 2% target since spring 2021. (Jin10)