Báo cáo của Delphi Digital: Chiến lược mua BTC của Saylor đang tiến gần đến giới hạn tới hạn

The Huoxing Finance report states that on May 12, the crypto research firm Delphi Digital released its latest report, “How Far Can Saylor Stretch It,” which analyzes the sustainability of Strategy’s current Bitcoin accumulation model and highlights that its financing structure is gradually approaching a critical pressure threshold. The report notes that Strategy’s early ability to continuously accumulate BTC was primarily due to MSTR’s stock price remaining consistently above the company’s Bitcoin net asset value (mNAV), enabling the company to achieve “increasing BTC per share” by issuing additional shares to purchase BTC. However, MSTR’s EV-based mNAV has now declined to approximately 1.24x, meaning the profitability of raising capital through common stock issuance has significantly narrowed and is nearing breakeven. Meanwhile, Strategy has historically relied heavily on convertible bond financing. Although low-interest convertible bonds previously enabled rapid expansion, the company still carries approximately $8.2 billion in principal debt, which will enter a critical repayment phase beginning in September 2027. The report identifies STRC (Strategy Preferred) financing as the current primary mechanism supporting continued Bitcoin purchases. STRC targets income-oriented investors, offering an annualized dividend yield of 11.5%, paid monthly. The company uses the raised funds to continue buying BTC without adding new convertible bond maturity pressures. However, Delphi points out that this model comes at the cost of “continuously growing fixed-income liabilities.” Each STRC financing round immediately increases BTC reserves but simultaneously adds future dividend payment obligations. The report warns that if BTC prices continue rising and MSTR’s premium remains elevated, this structure can still function; but if BTC remains range-bound for an extended period, dividend liabilities will accumulate while the efficiency of common stock financing continues to decline. Additionally, Strategy currently holds $2.25 billion in cash reserves, sufficient to cover approximately $1 billion in convertible bond put pressure in 2027; however, a larger debt wall in 2028 still needs resolution. Delphi also notes that the current authorized financing ceiling for STRC is $28.3 billion. Once this limit is reached and cannot be expanded, Strategy’s “ongoing capacity to offset dividend dilution through continuous BTC purchases” may significantly weaken or cease entirely.