Chỉ số Bull-Bear của CryptoQuant đối với bitcoin chuyển sang màu xanh, các chuyên gia cho thấy giai đoạn tăng giá sớm đã bắt đầu kể từ năm 2023

The Huoxing Finance report states that on May 12, CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator turned green for the first time since 2023. On-chain analyst Julio Moreno noted that this typically signals a shift from a bear market structure to a recovery phase. Moreno pointed out that historically, when this indicator exits the bear market zone and enters the “Early Bull” range, it often indicates that the worst adjustment phase has ended and market structure is beginning to recover. However, multiple analysts emphasized that this indicator is better suited for identifying market phase transitions rather than serving as a precise trading signal. Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, stated that the greatest significance of such indicators lies in determining whether “Bitcoin has stopped behaving like a bear market asset”; true confirmation still requires sustained demand, improved liquidity, and price stability within key ranges. Currently, Bitcoin has not yet effectively broken through the $82,000 resistance level. Although it has rebounded approximately 35% from its February low of around $60,000, the market remains in a tug-of-war. Moreno believes that to truly confirm a bull signal, Bitcoin must still absorb some of its current “weakness” indicators while facing pressure from a neutral Fear & Greed Index and a complex macroeconomic environment. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, believes Bitcoin has already completed a阶段性 bottoming process near $60,000 this year. He stated that once Bitcoin breaks above $90,000, the market could enter a “explosive phase,” with the target once again pointing toward its previous high of $126,000. Meanwhile, some analysts have cautioned that on-chain indicators such as MVRV and NUPL are fundamentally more aligned with a “behavioral cycle framework” and should not be viewed as absolute predictive tools.