Chain Analysts ghi nhận cấu trúc đáy của bitcoin khi thị trường đang tiêu hóa nỗi sợ

The Huoxing Finance report states that on June 6, on-chain analyst Murphy posted that BTC fell below the $60,000 psychological level yesterday, but market losses and sentiment indicators did not worsen in tandem. The current 3-day average of the adjusted realized loss (EARL) stands at $1.13 billion, nearly halved compared to the figure on February 5. He believes this does not mean BTC will not continue to decline further; however, the fact that EARL has not risen further despite lower prices represents a classic structure indicative of “bottom expectations.” If EARL reflects market panic, STH-RUL (Short-Term Holder Relative Unrealized Loss) reflects the psychological pressure faced by new investors. During the decline into a bear market, short-term holders typically experience a severe psychological stress threshold, where STH-RUL breaks above +5 standard deviations, corresponding to a systemic crisis. Afterward, even if prices fall further, STH-RUL rarely exceeds its prior peak, because positions have already rotated at high loss levels, new buyers have lower cost bases, and market pressure is being absorbed. Murphy believes that EARL and STH-RUL are currently sending consistent signals: market panic is being absorbed, not spreading. Although prices are making new lows, loss indicators are not simultaneously hitting new highs—this is not a sufficient condition for a bottom, but historically, true bottoms almost always exhibit this characteristic. Bottom formation is a process of repeated pressure and absorption until positions complete rotation amid panic and new buyers’ cost bases become sufficiently low, at which point the price gradually loses momentum for further declines.