Chuyên gia phân tích whale nội bộ BTC OG dự đoán tác động lâu dài của chiến tranh đến dầu mỏ và thị trường

The Huoxing Finance report states that on April 5, Garrett Jin, agent of the “BTC OG Insider Whale,” published a lengthy article titled “Oil Is War,” arguing that oil is not a byproduct of the U.S.-Iran war, but rather the core driving force behind the conflict itself, with all other economic and financial variables (stock markets, bonds, cryptocurrencies, Federal Reserve policies, food prices, etc.) being downstream consequences of oil prices. Whoever can accurately judge the direction of oil prices can understand the overall market trend. Garrett Jin believes that the U.S.-Iran war has exceeded expectations of “surgical airstrikes” and has evolved into a prolonged war of attrition; the sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to structural oil price increases rather than temporary spikes. The conflict has escalated into a long-term scenario, with the Strait of Hormuz closed for over five weeks, U.S. ground forces assembling, and no clear path to victory or signs of rapid de-escalation. Iran’s strategy is not to win, but to make the war costly enough to force Washington to seek withdrawal. The most likely scenario is a prolonged war of attrition, which aligns with U.S. interests—pressing global buyers to shift toward North American energy sources while high oil prices stimulate domestic U.S. production. The market has already priced in the war, but not yet its durability. Every oil price pullback presents a buying opportunity. As U.S. ground forces become involved and a quick victory proves impossible, oil prices will transmit their impact to interest rates, exchange rates, stock markets, and credit markets. According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire before the end of this month is 18%, before the end of May is 34%, and before the end of June is 46%.