Biến động của bitcoin giảm 56% so với mức cao quý, thị trường bước vào giai đoạn nén

The Huoxing Finance report states that on June 1, on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. indicated in his latest report that the Bitcoin market has entered a clear volatility compression phase. The one-week realized volatility (30-day moving average) has dropped from approximately 39 in early March this year to around 17 currently, a quarterly decline of over 56%, nearing historical lows. BTC price is currently holding near $73,500, still below the 200-day moving average of approximately $79,500. Historical data shows that extremely low volatility often signifies market energy accumulation, typically followed by significant directional moves. However, volatility compression itself does not provide directional signals—it merely indicates that the market is poised for a new trend selection. Meanwhile, the Delta indicator, which reflects changes in market premium (the difference between market capitalization growth rate and realized market capitalization growth rate), has remained negative for six consecutive months and further declined to approximately -0.0013 in May. This indicator suggests that Bitcoin’s market capitalization growth rate continues to lag behind its realized market capitalization growth rate, signaling a contraction in market risk appetite and valuation premium. The current market exhibits a combination of “low volatility + premium cooling,” which is not characteristic of a typical overheated bull market but rather resembles an consolidation phase following emotional cooling. If BTC subsequently reclaims the 200-day moving average while Delta rebounds toward zero, it would indicate the market is re-entering a risk appetite expansion cycle; conversely, if volatility continues to decline and Delta worsens further, the market may enter a deeper risk-off phase. Axel Adler Jr. summarized that the current market direction remains neutral, but the degree of compression is already high, and the probability of a significant directional move in the near future is continuously increasing.