Mốc thời gian đe dọa của bitcoin ước tính trong vòng 10 năm, sự đồng thuận của cộng đồng gặp khó khăn

The Huoxing Finance report states that on May 28, Sandy Peng, co-founder of Scroll, wrote that the quantum computing threat to Bitcoin is not fundamentally a physical challenge, but rather one of governance coordination. According to a white paper released by Google Quantum AI in March this year,破解 Bitcoin’s secp256k1 elliptic curve using an optimized Shor’s algorithm requires only about 1,200 logical qubits—nearly 20 times fewer than estimates from five years ago. IonQ’s official roadmap plans to reach 1,600 logical qubits by 2028, while IBM expects to launch its 2,000-logical-qubit Blue Jay system by 2033. This means the timeline for the threat is now roughly clear—“approximately ten years, possibly even less.” Attacks will unfold in waves, with the most vulnerable being early P2PK format addresses whose public keys are permanently exposed on-chain, including over a million bitcoins mined by Satoshi Nakamoto in his early days, which cannot be migrated or secured due to the absence of private key holders. Additionally, “collect now, decrypt later” attacks may already be underway—intelligence agencies need not wait for quantum computers to become operational; they merely need to store encrypted data for future decryption. Once quantum computers mature, unconfirmed transactions in the mempool will also face real-time replacement attacks within their ten-minute confirmation window. Although NIST released post-quantum cryptographic algorithm standards in 2024, migration carries a high cost—simulations indicate network throughput could drop by 52%-57%, while transaction fees may rise 2-3 times and storage requirements expand significantly. This is a “defensive downgrade”: costs are paid immediately, while benefits remain abstract and far in the future. Reaching consensus on this within the Bitcoin community—which has already debated SegWit upgrades for nearly two years—is extremely difficult. In contrast, Vitalik has already published Ethereum’s quantum emergency roadmap, allowing individual accounts to autonomously switch to post-quantum signatures without requiring a network-wide vote. Sandy Peng warns that Bitcoin will not go to zero, but its survival path is narrower than optimists believe—the window for quantum threats overlaps almost entirely with the 10–15 years needed for the Bitcoin community to reach consensus. Early Bitcoin holders are advised to check their address formats and migrate promptly; institutional investors should incorporate a “post-quantum migration roadmap” into their due diligence frameworks.