Bitcoin đối mặt với bốn rủi ro trong bối cảnh lợi suất trái phiếu Mỹ tăng cao

The Huoxing Finance report, citing a weekly analysis by CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler, states that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has recently risen to approximately 4.7%, nearing the upper bound of its five-year range. The high-interest-rate environment is tightening financial conditions, increasing financing costs and asset discount rates, and exerting greater pressure on risk assets. Currently, futures markets estimate a 38% probability of a rate hike at the next Fed meeting, but a Reuters survey of 104 economists generally expects rates to remain unchanged. In the Bitcoin market, Axel Adler notes that BTC rebounded approximately 11% from its June low of around $59,000 to nearly $66,000, but has since retreated to approximately $64,300. Four potential risks are currently emerging simultaneously: first, volatility has compressed significantly, with July’s realized volatility declining 31% to the 8th percentile of its historical range, suggesting a potentially more volatile move ahead; second, U.S. spot market demand remains weak, with trading at a discount for the past two and a half months and no sustained capital inflows observed; third, market buying liquidity is insufficient, as stablecoins continue to flow out of exchanges, and new capital activity has dipped to annual lows; fourth, investors are still realizing losses, with some positions exiting during the recovery phase, exerting downward pressure on prices. Additionally, Adler mentions that Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy, has not continued large-scale Bitcoin purchases recently; instead, he published a lengthy article recommending 38 books on civilization, money, energy, and technological development, aiming to construct a theoretical framework positioning Bitcoin as the long-term outcome of financial evolution. Adler believes the market remains in a critical observation phase and requires close attention to changes in liquidity, recovery of U.S. demand, and whether investor behavior improves.