JPMorgan warns of risks as the CLARITY Act stalls, further clouding the legal future of the U.S. cryptocurrency market.
JPMorgan cautions that failure to pass the CLARITY Act could delay the establishment of a clear regulatory framework for the U.S. cryptocurrency market, leaving businesses and investors exposed to ongoing regulatory uncertainty. Although regulatory agencies may proactively issue new guidance, such measures are unlikely to provide the long-term stability equivalent to a law enacted by Congress.
The CLARITY Act aims to clearly define regulatory jurisdiction over digital asset markets in the U.S., particularly delineating responsibilities between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). If passed, the bill could enable banks, exchanges, custodians, and traditional financial service providers to enter the cryptocurrency market with greater legal clarity.
However, the bill’s prospects face significant obstacles due to disagreements among lawmakers over stablecoin yields, anti-money laundering regulations, decentralized finance (DeFi), and ethical provisions concerning official conflicts of interest. During a procedural vote in the Senate on September 15, the bill received only 49 votes in favor and 50 against, falling short of the 60 votes required to proceed.
JPMorgan believes the window for passing the bill in 2026 has narrowed considerably as the political calendar tightens ahead of the U.S. midterm elections. The bank anticipates that market participants may increasingly shift focus to actions by the SEC and CFTC while awaiting congressional consensus.
Both regulatory agencies have signaled their intent to continue building rules for digital assets using their existing authorities. These initiatives could help remove certain barriers to cryptocurrency trading, tokenized assets, and blockchain applications in traditional finance.
Nevertheless, JPMorgan emphasizes that regulations issued by executive agencies may be altered by future administrations or challenged in court. In contrast, amending a law passed by Congress typically requires a new legislative process, offering greater market stability.
For the cryptocurrency industry, the absence of a unified regulatory framework may cause financial institutions to become more cautious about launching new products in the U.S., increasing the risk that trading and tokenization activities will migrate to jurisdictions with clearer regulations.
However, the stagnation of the CLARITY Act does not mean that U.S. cryptocurrency regulation as a whole will halt. The SEC and CFTC can still continue issuing guidance and rules within their respective jurisdictions, driving meaningful short-term changes in the market.
Overall, the greatest risk lies not merely in legislative delay, but in the potential for inconsistent regulations that make long-term strategic planning difficult for businesses. The progress of the CLARITY Act, policies toward stablecoins, and next steps by the SEC and CFTC will remain critical factors shaping the future outlook of the U.S. cryptocurrency market.