The RBI hiked the repo rate to 5.50% on Oct 7, but the exit door is still swinging. Traditional monetary policy is losing to the "Silicon Tax"—the mandatory global bid for US hardware. When tech leads, legacy rate hikes are just expensive noise.

Two things are important to watch : The Bank of Japan will further hike short-term rates, which will have a ripple effect on the USA and EU. What will France do now to deliver an incredible budget? Over the coming years, rates will rise rather than fall dramatically.

Demand for 30-year U.S. Treasuries may be increasing, but… Unlike Frank’s teacher’s view—that the subscription multiple of 2.54 for the 30-year Treasury is higher than the average of previous auctions, suggesting potential growth in demand—October’s subscription multiple was lower than September’s. Moreover, subscription multiples are generally of limited relevance, as they may include substantial bids with very high yields that still count toward total subscription amounts. In practice, the actual yield at auction is nearly identical to the pre-sale yield, with a difference of just 0.001 percentage points, which is negligible. Looking at the yields of 30-year U.S. Treasury issuances, they continue to rise—and the rate of increase is accelerating. Therefore, risks associated with U.S. Treasuries cannot be ignored.

🚨 10:00 AM ET | Michigan Consumer Sentiment The key isn't just how consumers feel—it's where they think prices are headed. A surprise in inflation expectations could move Treasury yields, shift Fed rate expectations, and impact equity futures. Rates, then YM/ES/NQ. 👀

Interest rates/yields have topped for the time being. This should give the Risk Rhythm the room to finish it's move up into the middle of the month.

US debt is getting more expensive and What does it mean for crypto? US Treasury yields have been rising, with 10Y yields moving above 5%. That matters for crypto. Higher yields make Treasuries more attractive compared to risky assets, pulling liquidity away from crypto. But there’s another side to it. The longer yields stay high, the more expensive US debt becomes to service. That increases pressure on policymakers to intervene - potentially through lower rates, bond purchases, or easier monetary policy. And if liquidity starts flowing back into the market, crypto could benefit significantly. For now, the key things to watch are: > US inflation > 10Y Treasury yields > Fed rate decisions > Treasury borrowing and buyback plans The next few weeks could be extremely important for the entire crypto market.

🚨 Today, markets will be focused on two critical developments coming from the U.S. 📌 First, at around 20:00 CET, the U.S. will hold its 10-year Treasury auction. The U.S. Treasury will issue $39 billion in 10-year notes. With U.S. Treasury yields recently testing their highest levels since 2002 at 5.34%, demand for this auction has become even more significant. If foreign investor demand remains weak, we could see further upward pressure on Treasury yields. Such a scenario may exert downward pressure on gold, the euro, and Bitcoin in the short term. 📌 Then, at 21:00 CET, the Fed’s meeting minutes will be released. We’ll gain insight into how Fed members viewed interest rates during their most recent meeting. Recent weak employment data has caused market expectations for an October rate hike to retreat to just 20.5%. What markets are most eager to learn is whether Fed members plan to continue raising rates going forward—or whether they’ll prefer to pause. Currently, expectations for the next rate move have largely shifted to December.