Transitionary 70-day Cycle in Bitcoin The concept of the Transition Cycle has been documented on this account for larger yearly cycles via the concept of the "Business Cycle Regime". The general idea is that the dominant cycle acting on a particular asset can change. While an asset is undergoing this transition, the cycle visible in the price chart will be the average of the outgoing cycle length and the incoming cycle length. This is why we forecasted that the Bitcoin cycle would bottom around July/August, not October. We are now applying this concept to the daily cycle in Bitcoin. Most people are aware of the legacy daily cycle length of 60-days. But, as Bitcoin is aligning itself with The Risk Rhythm of the S&P500, it seems to be pushing itself towards the 80-day rhythm for it's dominant daily rhythm. So, we now have what appears to be a Transitionary Daily Cycle in Bitcoin that is taking the average of 70-days. This would be the first live documented case of this under RESM Theory. A cycle curve of this transitionary cycle has been made, and it appears that we are ripe for a bottom. But do keep in mind that this is expected to be a fleeting cycle length, not permanent. $BTC $IBIT

Looks like sideways consolidation under the trend line. We should expect a move up now through it in next day or so, that is the window. Further stalling, would probably indicate the need for another pullback from the trend line.

The popular Dot Com fractal with the Netscape IPO to ChatGPT release timing peaks in 2028, right around where the current 7-year cycle of The Risk Rhythm should peak. There will be a major pullback in 2029, and this will fool most market participants into thinking that the fractal matches, and that will be THE TOP. Only for the market to rip higher into the real 105-year speculative excess bubble.

Bitcoin Transition Daily Cycles Bitcoin has been exhibiting a daily cycle that is on average 70 days long for at least a year and a half. The legacy bitcoin daily cycle is ~60 days and one of the main daily cycle lengths in the Risk Rhythm is ~80 days. So this is the average of those two cycle lengths, further enforcing the idea that Bitcoin is undergoing a transition to align with the Risk Rhythm of the S&P 500. If this is to hold, we should expect a daily cycle low right about now. Otherwise, we might have seen a daily cycle failure, and the best case scenario would be waiting until a mid-cycle low in mid-November for the next impulsive move. $BTC $IBIT

The Risk Rhythm We are still in the window for a bottom on the 40-day cycle. The SPX got a confirmation out of the Oct 16 low, but the Nasdaq did not. A secondary low can happen, and then re-trigger the bottoming process. Despite this, the price action is not favorable to a large move higher. It looks more likely that we have to wait until the 120-day cycle bottoms in mid-November before we get the next decisive move higher into the end of the year. $SPX $SPY $NDX $QQQ

This is something I have never thought about, because I don’t use Elliot wave or know it well, but the 105-year cycle is modeled well as a 5-wave count where waves 1, 3, and 5 are the three 35-year bubbles of the RESM in succession.

This is an excellent graphic showing how the slope of all charts will only get steeper as we head towards the end of The Big Parabola.

Bitcoin Weekly and Daily Cycles The daily cycle has confirmed a low with a 10 SMA close and a cRSI re-entry from below the channel. With Bitcoin seemingly taking on the Risk Rhythm of the SP500, and bottoming early on the 4-year cycle. I am issuing a tentative weekly cycle curve now for Bitcoin at ~33 weeks. This is half of the 66-week cycle of the Risk Rhythm. The starting point of the current instance is also tentative, so take it with a grain of salt. It points to some upward momentum now, with the real inflection point coming up sometime in November. $BTC $IBIT

Opened the charts for the first time today. I was promised a Black Monday. What happened?

Bitcoin vs Global M2 In 2025, it was very popular to post charts with Global M2 compared to Bitcoin with some offset. For awhile it worked, and then the trends diverged when Bitcoin's bear market started, and many people had a field day dunking on the comparisons. The truth is that the rhythm was almost a perfect match when offset by 84 days, and still has been through the bear market and to today. Remove the trend, and you can see it moving in unison turn for turn. This is the difference between understanding rhythm and being fooled by price levels. Trends can diverge, but a shared rhythm will persist. The shifted Global M2 has put in a pivot low and is not heading higher. This is aligned with the daily cycle of Bitcoin and the Risk Rhythm bottoming.