Breaking: September jobs report Nonfarm payrolls: +29K vs +90K expected Unemployment rate: 4.2% vs 4.1% expected $SPY $QQQ

«Η ανάπτυξη παραμένει πολύ δυνατή, άρα γιατί να χαλαρώσει η Fed;». Σήμερα το labor market έβαλε για πρώτη φορά σοβαρό ερωτηματικό σε αυτό. 👇 Τα τρία βασικά σημερινά νούμερα είναι όλα προς την ίδια κατεύθυνση: NFP: +29K έναντι +90K αναμενόμενων. Ανεργία: 4,2% έναντι 4,1%. Average Hourly Earnings: +0,1% m/m έναντι +0,3%. Και το NFP είναι ακόμη πιο αδύναμο απ' όσο φαίνεται, γιατί ο Αύγουστος αναθεωρήθηκε από +162K σε +133K, ο Ιούλιος πλέον είναι -10K, και οι δύο προηγούμενοι μήνες συνολικά έχασαν άλλες 60 χιλιάδες θέσεις μέσω revisions. Άρα: October hike: πολύ λιγότερο πιθανό. 2Y: πρέπει να δεχτεί πίεση χαμηλότερα. 10Y/30Y: είναι πλέον το μεγάλο τεστ. USD: χάνει ένα σημαντικό στήριγμα αν συνεχίσει το repricing της Fed. Nasdaq / BTC: θετικό αρχικό setup. Ύφεση; Ακόμα όχι. ΑΕΠ ακόμα ισχυρό. Το σημερινό report δείχνει μεν ξεκάθαρη επιβράδυνση στην αγορά εργασίας, όχι όμως απολύσεις ή κατάρρευση. Μάλιστα το participation ανέβηκε κατά 0.2%, άρα μέρος της ανόδου της ανεργίας πιθανόν είναι περισσότερος κόσμος στην αναζήτηση εργασίας. Τώρα η μπάλα περνάει στο 10ετές. Αν πέσει και αυτό, το macro setup για το bitcoin:native γίνεται αισθητά καλύτερο. Αν δεν πέσει ούτε με αυτά τα δεδομένα, τότε επιβεβαιώνεται ότι το πραγματικό πρόβλημα βρίσκεται στο long end και όχι στη Fed. #FED #crypto #nfp #rates #macro #analysis

🔺 October hike odds fell from 71% to near 20% in ten days, after 29,000 payrolls missed 90,000 Friday. Called the patience trade here at 38% Thursday. The board stopped demanding hikes and started pricing patience. Scoreboard reads: patience 1, panic 0.

⚠️ U.S. Stock Market: Nasdaq and S&P 500 — I See Top-Range Consolidation and Distribution, Not Accumulation for an Upward Move In the U.S. stock market, I believe the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are consolidating at the top range to distribute, not accumulating for the next leg of a one-sided rally. Prices have not shown strong breakout momentum; instead, selling pressure during this consolidation is intensifying. 📊 Nasdaq: Intense Battle Between Bulls and Bears Recent two-day candles show prominent upper and lower shadows, with volume increasing compared to prior periods — yet no strong upward breakout has occurred. Within this narrow trading range, bearish candle volume has also expanded relative to earlier levels. 🔎 S&P 500: Volume Rising, But Price Trending Downward Since reaching the upper boundary of the range on August 10, S&P 500 volume during consolidation has gradually increased — yet the overall daily trend is not trending upward, but downward. I interpret this as evidence of heavy selling pressure within the range. Two-day bearish candle volumes are also growing, signaling increasingly pronounced top distribution. 🔴 Futures Confirm Weakness Yesterday, Nasdaq futures posted massive volume with a long upper shadow — a daily candle pattern occurring at the top of a range, which I view as a clear bearish signal driven by distribution. Similarly, the S&P 500 futures formed a low-volume doji at the bottom of the range — another bearish signal. Daily pre-market pump-and-dump patterns, followed by intraday collapses, are unmistakable signs of baiting longs. My bearish bias remains unchanged — but for Nasdaq, I’m waiting for a weekly bearish candle with elevated volume to form at the top of the range. 💬 What volume-price indicators do you use to confirm a top-range distribution scenario? If this review was helpful, please give it a like, share it with friends following U.S. markets, and save it for future reference. #USStocks

$NVDA led the week with $256.1M in sweep premium, and #TSLA at $192.6M kept the leaders wrapped in a defensive put mix. ↗️ Sweep premium: NVDA $256.1M, TSLA $192.6M ↘️ Put flow: #AMD 51%, TSLA 38% ➡️ Rotation: META $131.2M and INTC $106.3M kept the premium concentrated in mega-cap tech and semis ➡️ Watchlist: concentration in NVDA, TSLA, META

🚨 U.S. 10-YEAR YIELDS AT 5.28%! We were ready to celebrate Bitcoin hitting $87,000… But the U.S. 10-year yield said: “What? Where are you going?” 😅 It climbed above 5.01% and settled at 5.28%. While Fed rate hike expectations are easing, long-term bond yields remain tight around the market’s throat. In this environment, laughing is forbidden! 😂 This is where my eyes are fixed for the markets.

For the first nine months of 2026, which funds performed best? Nine months of 2026 have passed—how is your investment return doing? Today, I’ve listed the year-to-date performance of several major indices for your reference. Index Fund Return Total Market VTI 13.7% S&P 500 13.8% Nasdaq-100 22.5% Information Technology VGT 36.7% Semiconductors SMH 75.1% International Stocks VXUS 14.1% Short-Term Bonds VBIL 2.8% Gold GLD -4.1% Over the past 15 years, the average annualized returns for these major ETFs have been as follows: ETF Return Total Market VTI 15.3% S&P 500 15.7% Nasdaq-100 20.5% Information Technology VGT 22.5% Semiconductors SMH 30.2% International Stocks VXUS 8.4% Gold GLD 6.0%

After the U.S. September non-farm payroll data was released, U.S. stocks continued to surge sharply, and the Taiwan stock market’s night session also climbed above 49,000. Here’s a summary of the data: 1. Job growth was far below the market expectation of 90,000, with only 29,000 new jobs added. 2. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. 3. Data for July and August was significantly revised downward. Following the release, long-term U.S. Treasury yields dropped substantially. Additionally, the probability of a rate hike in late October, which many feared most, has now been pressed down to just 13%. As a result, equities rallied broadly across the board. It’s been a while since I last discussed stocks—recent weeks have focused mostly on crypto. My last trade was at the end of July, when I went long 2x on Micron and SK Hynix. In mid-August, I reduced my U.S. stock positions and increased my Bitcoin allocation. I currently still hold 35% of my portfolio in U.S. stocks. If the market continues to rebound, I plan to further reduce my positions. The U.S. stock rebound has been remarkably smooth, especially in the semiconductor sector, which saw strong recoveries. Next, I’ll cover gold.

Today’s AI U.S. stock market insights: 1. September non-farm payrolls came in below expectations, oil prices fell, and the probability of another rate hike dropped sharply; $QQQ rose 1.2% to a new high, marking three consecutive weeks of gains. 2. $NVDA surged 3% to a new high, as institutional investors reinstated it as their top pick; power and data center shortages benefit NVIDIA due to its high-efficiency GPUs. 3. The two worst-performing stocks in the S&P technology sector—$STX and $WDC—plummeted 10% after Toshiba’s Philippines subsidiary plans to expand production, aiming to double AI data center HDD capacity next year. 4. $SPCX jumped 8% following successful rocket launches; $TSLA rose 5% after delivering 486,000 vehicles in Q3, significantly exceeding expectations, with EV sales set to surpass those of internal combustion engine vehicles imminently. 5. $CBRS hit a new all-time low since its IPO, as its revenue is heavily reliant on large contracts with $OpenAI; OpenAI’s new model has switched to NVIDIA GPUs.