⚠️ Bitcoin has retested 76,500, but a strong rebound still requires confirmation of robust demand. Bitcoin’s retest has reached the level I anticipated yesterday, but on the 9-hour chart, we still haven’t seen strong demand. To rebound and test 79,500–81,000, demand must first confirm itself. 📊 Retest Confirmed, Demand Remains Weak After U.S. equities opened last night, volume surged as price dropped to retest 76,500, validating the expected retest. Although smaller 2-hour charts showed some pinbar bullish candles near 76,500, volume remained low—indicating insufficient demand. For a rebound to 79,500–81,000 to materialize, we need to see significantly stronger demand if the 2-hour chart again dips toward 76,500 tonight. 🔎 Open Interest Rises, Shorts Dominate After prolonged consolidation at the bottom, open interest has begun rising, while both funding rates and spot CVD have slightly declined—suggesting that new positions are predominantly short. If open interest continues rising alongside price, but funding rates fail to follow suit, the next attempt toward 79,500–81,000 may be the final rally in this range—followed by a high probability of a decisive breakdown below 76,500. 🔴 Coin’s Daily Chart Conditions After Coin surged with volume and tested 137 last Friday, yesterday’s daily candle closed bearish again. If the daily chart breaks below 137 with increased volume, I believe a sustained downtrend will begin, pushing Coin into a full bear market cycle—which would also signal a broader downward trend for Bitcoin. I still view any rebound as conditional: strong demand must first emerge near 76,500. A retest alone does not confirm a reversal. 💬 After this retest, is your primary expectation for a clear increase in demand? If this review was helpful, please like it, share it with friends following Bitcoin, or save it for future reference. #BTC

I’ve finished the review, and I’ll give you a quick summary here—the full version will be sent out shortly. The overall market index still shows some divergence. For example, the CSI 300 has already reached a key support level—the 3,800 to 4,000 range—which is a significant support zone. Over the past two days, daily charts have clearly shown increased demand, and there’s been noticeable buying pressure in the CSI 300. At the same time, I haven’t seen clear signs of stabilization in the Shanghai Composite, ChiNext, or STAR Market. However, today’s trading volume has been gradually expanding, especially in the STAR Market—I can clearly sense that the STAR Market is beginning to accelerate downward with significantly higher volume. For ChiNext, I think it’s just one step away from following suit. The leading weight sectors in ChiNext, such as communication giants like Zhiwei Xuchuang and New Optical, which are top players in optical modules, have started to decline. Given that ChiNext fell less than the STAR Market today, I believe ChiNext may accelerate downward tomorrow. Looking at the broader financial sector: banks are showing signs of selling pressure; for brokerages, I see hints of potential bottoming; and insurance stocks are also showing increased volume, with demand beginning to rebound. From this perspective, I believe the market is only waiting for the final decline in the Shanghai Composite and the “双创” (ChiNext and STAR Market). As for the CSI 300, I think it may consolidate here before potentially breaking lower—but the downside space appears limited. Overall, from the brokerage sector’s perspective, its current movement satisfies one of the necessary conditions we previously outlined for a bottom formation—and we’ve now observed it. I believe brokerages have limited downside potential, which is a very positive sign. In the insurance sector, clear signs of strength are emerging. Since neither brokerages nor insurance are showing signs of sustained sharp declines, the only remaining area to watch is technology—whether it will enter a final acceleration phase to purge remaining sellers. If technology enters its final acceleration, then ChiNext and STAR Market will likely follow with their own final downward surge, and the Shanghai Composite will also accelerate downward to test its bottom at this level. Therefore, we still need to monitor several key signals: 1. Will the overall index experience an accelerated decline with massive volume—specifically, volume reaching 1.5 to 2 times the average decline volume? If such volume materializes, I believe the technology sector may be showing early signs of bottoming. 2. Additionally, we need to observe whether the overall index forms a high-volume bullish candle on the weekly chart. If a strong weekly candle with significant volume appears, I believe we may see a clear signal of stabilization at the weekly level—this would then pave the way for broader monthly-level rebounds and a major bear-market rally.

⚠️ Bitcoin Shows Weakness at Higher Timeframes; Any Rally Depends on Demand at 76,500 I still believe a major downtrend for Bitcoin is likely to begin, but the daily chart shows signs of volume-supported stabilization. Whether a short-term rally occurs hinges on whether strong demand emerges upon retesting 76,500. 📊 Monthly Trend Remains Weak The October monthly candle is a bearish engulfing pattern. Compared to September’s bullish candle, volume did not significantly decline—this is a clear sign of ongoing weakness. 📍 Daily Chart Shows Signs of Stabilization; Rally Still Possible The daily chart has displayed volume-supported stabilization near 76,500. As previously noted, if price drops back below 80,000 with volume, it re-enters the 76,500–80,000 trading range. Since stabilization has occurred near 76,500, I believe there’s a high probability of a bullish retracement toward the 79,500–81,000 resistance zone. 🔎 Shorter Timeframes Still Lack Strong Demand On the 9-hour chart, after the U.S. stock market opened on Friday, price retested 76,500 without generating strong demand. Similarly, the 2-hour chart showed a brief spike to 76,500 but failed to sustain meaningful buying pressure. Therefore, I believe there’s a high likelihood of another downward test of 76,500. If strong demand emerges upon retesting 76,500, I believe the probability of a rally toward 79,500–81,000 increases significantly. My subsequent scenario: after rallying to this resistance zone and encountering selling pressure, price resumes its decline and breaks below 76,500 to initiate a sustained downtrend. I believe breaking below 76,500 is highly probable—but the immediate question remains: will demand strengthen upon retesting this level? 💬 Do you prefer to see stronger demand emerge near 76,500 first—or wait to see how price behaves after a rally to the upper range? If you found this analysis helpful, please like it, share it with friends following Bitcoin, or save it for future reference to verify these conditions. #BTC

Although Ethereum’s monthly decline has seen reduced volume, the bearish candlestick has fully engulfed the previous one, forming a bearish candle with no upper shadow—I believe the monthly downtrend has begun. On the daily chart, volume has increased as price broke below 2,350, signaling a decisive shift to weakness. However, Bitcoin remains within its range, so Ethereum may not decline directly. If Ethereum rallies back to test 2,350 and encounters clear selling pressure, I will interpret this as a failed retest of resistance and expect the next phase of smooth, one-sided downside to follow. #ETH https://t.co/c2YSor6IpQ

U.S. stocks did not open lower and then recover yesterday; instead, they opened lower and continued falling sharply! What will happen to China’s A-shares on Monday? Currently, a double top has formed on the monthly chart of U.S. stocks, but yesterday’s daily chart showed extremely high volume, suggesting a potential short-term rebound. Given yesterday’s 3.5% plunge in U.S. stocks, I believe A-shares are highly likely to accelerate downward sharply on Monday. Since September, the market has been in a prolonged phase of gradual decline. Next week, we may see a sharp drop of over 5% in the ChiNext and STAR Market indices. If such an accelerated decline is accompanied by massive volume, the bear market rally we previously anticipated may be imminent.

I’ve already told you everything in advance—on the 18th, I told you to short everything you could see! I also did exactly that with my members in the group! 🤣

I’m inclined to retest 76,500 for Bitcoin—whether it can rebound depends on whether strong demand emerges during that retest. Yesterday’s daily candle showed a large volume bearish candle, pushing prices back below $80,000, confirming that the previous rally above $80,000 was a false breakout. We’re now back within the $76,500–$80,000 trading range, and the major bearish signal is fully established. On the 9-hour chart, a high-volume pinbar bullish candle appeared at 76,500, indicating some demand has entered here—but whether this demand is sustainable remains to be seen. The 4-hour chart also showed a volume-backed bullish pinbar at 76,500, but follow-through demand faded quickly; after a minor rebound, prices resumed their decline—this is the basis for my bias toward another downward test. On the 1-hour chart, demand remains weak after dropping to 76,500, with no volume on the pullback. The demand seen on the 4-hour and 9-hour charts stems from the massive volume bearish candle that preceded it; we cannot ignore the lack of subsequent buying support. If strong demand emerges upon retesting 76,500, a rebound is likely, potentially targeting the resistance zone of $79,500–$81,000. We’ll then assess price reaction and whether selling pressure surfaces there. #BTC

Most people in the crypto space are seeing the bull market at the beginning of rate hikes—it’s insane!

The left side goes against human nature; the right side means entering only after observing the left side complete its move. Buying on the left requires stricter position management and stronger psychological discipline—most people find it very difficult to achieve.

⚠️ Nasdaq, S&P, and QQQ: May Open Lower but Recover Tonight; Downtrend on Daily Chart Still Looking for Support I lean toward a lower open followed by a recovery tonight in U.S. equities, but that doesn’t mean I’m bullish. The pre-market decline has been excessive—I believe a bounce is more likely first, followed by a continuation of the downtrend after next week’s low-volume gap fill for yesterday’s and today’s gaps. 📊 Yesterday’s price action aligned with my analysis After a high-volume stall the day before, prices began declining yesterday. The Nasdaq formed a low-volume doji, while the S&P and QQQ both declined on higher volume—and pre-market declines continue. 🎯 Key daily support levels to watch: Nasdaq: 25,800 | S&P: 7,600 | QQQ: 700 These are critical daily support levels. If tonight’s session opens lower and continues down with high volume, breaking below these respective supports and creating a new daily low, I would consider the daily trend to have definitively turned bearish. 🔎 Monthly chart outlook remains bearish I expect both the Nasdaq and QQQ to close this month with a high-volume bearish candle. If so, the double-top structure on the monthly chart is confirmed, significantly increasing the probability of a prolonged monthly-level range-bound decline. If next week sees another low-volume daily rebound, I may consider maintaining a bearish bias. For the S&P, the monthly outlook is conditional: if the monthly close settles below 7,600, the false breakout will be confirmed, and a monthly-level downtrend becomes more likely. 💬 After this sharp pre-market drop, do you think tonight will see a lower open followed by a recovery? If this review was helpful, please like it, share it with friends following U.S. markets, and save it for future reference to verify these conditions. #SPX #QQQ