Today all eyes are on the ECB today as investors await the latest interest-rate decision. Markets are expecting a 25 bps hike, taking the benchmark rate from 2.40% to 2.65%. But the real market mover could come after the decision: 📌 Policy statement 🎙️ ECB press conference 📊 Guidance on the path for future rates 💶 Potential impact on EUR, bonds and risk assets With the rate move largely expected, the ECB’s messaging will likely matter more than the decision itself.

The entire market is holding its breath awaiting the August CPI report. While waiting for new signals to gauge the Fed’s next move, spot trading volume across major exchanges rose approximately 19% in August, surpassing $510 billion. What stands out is that capital has resumed strong activity just before a major macroeconomic event—indicating the market isn’t standing on the sidelines, but is already positioning itself ahead of the news. If tomorrow’s CPI deviates sharply from expectations, the liquidity already in place could amplify volatility significantly.

Pay attention: Friday's CPI print could decide the Fed's next move, here's what we see. Economists expect headline CPI to rise 0.4% in August after just 0.1% in July, holding the annual rate at 3.4%. Core is seen up 0.2% month on month, with the yearly rate easing to 2.4% from 2.5%. Here's the nuance. The headline bounce is mainly gasoline and energy, so the gap versus core should WIDEN. This is key: core is the number that decides whether the Fed holds or hikes next week. Officials have signaled 0.2% keeps a pause alive, while 0.3% or more reopens a hike. In-line prints should leave policy odds intact. A cooler mix would cut hike odds and boost Treasuries and gold. A hot surprise would firm up September hike pricing and pressure growth stocks.

AUSTRALIA'S INFLATION EXPECTATIONS JUST HELD AT 4.9% - STILL WELL ABOVE THE RBA'S TARGET. The Melbourne Institute's Inflation Expectations gauge for September came in at 4.9%, unchanged from August and remaining near multi-year highs. This is a hawkish signal. Consumers expect prices to keep rising at a pace more than double the RBA's 2–3% target band. The RBA meets September 28–29. Markets are pricing a ~69% probability of a hike. But the data is mixed: consumer sentiment crashed 5.2% last week, and NAB business conditions turned negative for the first time in 6 years. Yet inflation expectations refuse to budge. Is the RBA hiking into a slowing economy or will stubborn inflation expectations force their hand?

CPI and the Fed decision are imminent—there’s zero room for error in the market. If CPI slightly exceeds expectations, combined with the recent surge in oil prices, the market could easily descend into panic over resurgent inflation, triggering a cascade of selling. If CPI comes in below expectations, any bullish relief will likely be fleeting, as high oil prices will prompt markets to prematurely worry about a rebound in the next CPI reading. Despite the Treasury’s continued expansion of bond buybacks, long-term yields and the yen’s movement prove that bond traders aren’t buying into this kind of “verbal reassurance.” This is the real reason behind yesterday’s pullback in U.S. stocks and crypto. In my view, tomorrow night’s CPI must hold steady at expectations; true market upside will depend on whether the Fed delivers a genuinely dovish signal on September 17. The next ten days are absolutely decisive. #CPI $BTC

Major dump incoming (maybe) in 6 days @frankdegods capitulated everything on @fomo @theunipcs has made zero buys over the last 3 days Whales have paused buying But why? The FED will most likely increase rates, and that could be the kiss of death for risk assets like stocks and crypto I recommend a partial capitulation at this point

🚨 Polymarket is pricing a tight September Fed call: 25 bps increase 54% vs no change 46%. That is not conviction. That is a market sitting on a volatility wire, with both sides liquid enough to get raided before the decision. For crypto, the question is simple: real hawkish repricing, or just another pre-Fed liquidity trap? 👇 #FederalReserve #Polymarket #CryptoMarkets #Macro #Liquidity

⚠️ PERFECT STORM INDEX™: 81 High Risk +1 today Brent remains above $100, Treasury yields are close to cycle highs and geopolitical risks continue to threaten global energy flows. Markets now face crucial US inflation data with expectations of further monetary tightening rising. Volatility remains contained for now, limiting today’s increase. Risk is intensifying, but not yet breaking. #Bitcoin #Crypto #Macro #PSI

Six days until the next FOMC decision. Markets currently price a 62.2% probability of a 25bp rate hike, but tomorrow’s US CPI report could materially shift those expectations. The inflation data may provide the next major directional catalyst for risk assets, including #Bitcoin. Volatility ahead. #BTC #Crypto #FOMC #Inflation Whilst traders are pricing roughly a 60% chance of a hike, most economists still expect the Fed to hold, making tomorrow’s CPI especially important.

Good morning to everyone on this critical day for the markets ☀️ Today, at 15:30, the PPI and Initial Jobless Claims data will be released. I expect high volatility—those opening trades should not do so without stop-losses.