Pay attention: Friday's CPI print could decide the Fed's next move, here's what we see. Economists expect headline CPI to rise 0.4% in August after just 0.1% in July, holding the annual rate at 3.4%. Core is seen up 0.2% month on month, with the yearly rate easing to 2.4% from 2.5%. Here's the nuance. The headline bounce is mainly gasoline and energy, so the gap versus core should WIDEN. This is key: core is the number that decides whether the Fed holds or hikes next week. Officials have signaled 0.2% keeps a pause alive, while 0.3% or more reopens a hike. In-line prints should leave policy odds intact. A cooler mix would cut hike odds and boost Treasuries and gold. A hot surprise would firm up September hike pricing and pressure growth stocks.