AUSTRALIA'S INFLATION EXPECTATIONS JUST HELD AT 4.9% - STILL WELL ABOVE THE RBA'S TARGET. The Melbourne Institute's Inflation Expectations gauge for September came in at 4.9%, unchanged from August and remaining near multi-year highs. This is a hawkish signal. Consumers expect prices to keep rising at a pace more than double the RBA's 2–3% target band. The RBA meets September 28–29. Markets are pricing a ~69% probability of a hike. But the data is mixed: consumer sentiment crashed 5.2% last week, and NAB business conditions turned negative for the first time in 6 years. Yet inflation expectations refuse to budge. Is the RBA hiking into a slowing economy or will stubborn inflation expectations force their hand?