Spent some time reading about prediction markets for a while, heard many opinions about pros/cons but not a decisive one, imo the biggest problem it's that someone still has to decide what you're allowed to trade in the first place Reading through my timeline, I've caught a new idea, one to make the whole process permissionless by letting AI handle pricing, settlement, it was made by @prophetmarketai Just imagine If that model works at scale, the opportunity goes way beyond election bets or sports. Suddenly, you can have millions of niche markets that would never make it onto a permissioned platform What do you think about it? Waiting for some takes so I can move further w the research...

🔍 Researchers at @Stanford and @sgSMU found signs of manipulation in @Polymarket's five-minute #Bitcoin prediction markets. According to their estimates, 821 wallets earned $8.22M in cycles with anomalous activity, while retail and other unclassified participants lost $7.61M. The alleged scheme involved large spot trades placed in the final seconds before settlement, temporarily moving the price in a favorable direction — with sharp order flow spikes followed by rapid reversals consistent with settlement-price manipulation. The study estimated the behavior transferred $1.28M from ordinary traders to manipulators during the sample period. The authors noted the findings do not prove intent or a direct link between spot market traders and #Polymarket beneficiaries. They also stressed that settlement design, not prediction markets themselves, is the core vulnerability — pointing to longer settlement windows and time-weighted average prices as potential fixes.

'I AM ALWAYS RESPECTFUL' National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) Director Melvin Matibag denied having a personal feud with Senator Alan Peter Cayetano amid the agency's investigation into alleged irregularities involving the 2019 Southeast Asian Games Sports Complex. Matibag said the NBI will simply follow the evidence and may invite Cayetano to give a statement if necessary. Cayetano previously served as chairman of the Philippine Southeast Asian Games Organizing Committee (PHISGOC), which oversaw the country's hosting of the 2019 SEA Games.

$50 billion in prediction market volume from the World Cup. I've been thinking about what that means for builders. Five years ago, prediction markets were niche. Crypto-native. Complicated. Small. Today: $50 billion in a month. From sports betting. The killer app for prediction markets wasn't politics or crypto prices. It was football. The lesson for every builder: The infrastructure you build for serious use cases gets adopted first by fun use cases. SWIFT was built for interbank transfers. Used for everything. Ethereum was built for smart contracts. Used for NFTs first. Polymarket was built for political forecasting. Reaching $50B through World Cup bets. Build the rails. The passengers find their own way in. 🏗️

Prediction markets just topped $50 billion in monthly volume. The catalyst: 2026 FIFA World Cup. The infrastructure story nobody is covering: That $50B didn't run through Betfair or DraftKings. It ran through Polymarket and Kalshi — crypto-native prediction markets. The same infrastructure pricing CLARITY Act odds at 48-60% — is now processing World Cup bets at $50 billion a month. The crossover moment between prediction markets and sports betting just happened quietly. Korea context: Korea co-hosted the 2002 World Cup. Korean crypto exchanges have historically surged during global sporting events. Sports. Prediction markets. Crypto. Three industries converging on the same rails. 🏗️

⚖️ STANFORD STUDY UNCOVERS MANIPULATION RISKS IN BITCOIN PREDICTION MARKETS 🔍 A recent Stanford study has raised alarms that 5-minute Bitcoin prediction markets can be susceptible to settlement manipulation 🤔. This revelation could have significant implications for traders relying on these short-term predictions, as it casts a shadow on their accuracy and reliability. With the market's trust at stake, investors must now tread carefully and consider potential biases influencing these rapid assessments 🔄. 📰 Source: CoinTelegraph Are we entering a new era of skepticism in Bitcoin prediction markets? Let us know your thoughts. 👇

The upcoming August 5th earnings for $ZETA is going to be the next big thing! The market has yet to price the valuable Palantir partnership that ZETA has undertaken and repeatedly emphasized customer expansion and platform built on foundry. In addition, a guided cross into GAAP profitability is going to open the door to a whole class of institutional buyers who simply can't own an unprofitable company. Stay Tuned. We are now in take-off mode.

Do all traitors have to die? Polymarket and Predict are heading in opposite directions. Just a few days ago, Polymarket was exposed for deleting posts about airdrops, setting its projected IPO date for May 21, 2027, and raising trading fees on sports markets to a maximum of 5%! Can you believe it? 😱 Yes, a flat 5% per trade—born from Web3, yet now that it’s grown big and wealthy, it’s abandoning its Web3 roots and leaving behind the early supporters. That’s true betrayal. In contrast, Predict not only offers lower fees across all price ranges than Polymarket, but also rewards users with points. The off-chain value of these points has hit new highs, with data soaring exponentially—and it has already confirmed its TGE. In the end, Predict is truly the prediction market for the Web3 community. Comparing their journeys so far, today we’ll explore the divergent paths of Predict and Polymarket: IPO or TGE—who do you pick? 👀 @Polymarket @predictdotfun @dingalingts @yuexiaoyu @TC8880 @ricardogee