🔍 Researchers at @Stanford and @sgSMU found signs of manipulation in @Polymarket's five-minute #Bitcoin prediction markets. According to their estimates, 821 wallets earned $8.22M in cycles with anomalous activity, while retail and other unclassified participants lost $7.61M. The alleged scheme involved large spot trades placed in the final seconds before settlement, temporarily moving the price in a favorable direction — with sharp order flow spikes followed by rapid reversals consistent with settlement-price manipulation. The study estimated the behavior transferred $1.28M from ordinary traders to manipulators during the sample period. The authors noted the findings do not prove intent or a direct link between spot market traders and #Polymarket beneficiaries. They also stressed that settlement design, not prediction markets themselves, is the core vulnerability — pointing to longer settlement windows and time-weighted average prices as potential fixes.