BofA: Card spending +4.5% WE July 11... lousy weather, Prime Day hangover... World Cup host cities led YoY ex-gas spending growth was actually higher for lower-income households

🗓️ What’s on the Agenda Today? – July 16, 2026 📖 The Fed’s Beige Book report will be released. 🇺🇸 U.S. weekly initial jobless claims will be announced. 🇰🇷 The Bank of Korea will announce its interest rate decision. 🔓 ARB unlock: 1.94% of supply (~$11.57 million). 🔓 VANA unlock: 8.30% of supply (~$3.13 million). 🔓 GPS unlock: 2.48% of supply (~$1.10 million). 👉 Could the Fed’s assessment of economic conditions provide new market signals?

That 2.6% looks nice, but don’t let the numbers fool you—it's just a breather before the next spike. Inflation is a beast that doesn’t go down without a fight.

🇺🇸 TRUMP WANTS CHEAPER MONEY. Trump says the U.S. should have the lowest interest rates in the world. His argument? Other countries borrow at 1–1.5%. The U.S. pays 3–4%. Only solution: CUT RATES. The Fed is under pressure. And if rates actually start falling, Liquidity comes back. He wants the U.S. to have the lowest rates in the world. If Trump gets his way, I don’t think risk assets are going to complain.

🎯 Kevin Warsh tells the Senate that disciplined Fed policy can make the recent inflation surge “a thing of the past,” while reaffirming the 2% target. 📊 June CPI and PPI showed improving price trends, including the first monthly CPI decline since April 2020—but persistent inflation could still constrain rate cuts. 📊 Warsh also called for consistent GENIUS Act rules across regulators to prevent stablecoin firms from exploiting regulatory arbitrage. 🔥 Watch Saturday’s GENIUS Act deadline, prospective CLARITY Act action, and scrutiny of Fed ethics and political independence. #FederalReserve #Inflation #Stablecoins #CryptoRegulation

Mrkt edge: FED members statements on inflation. I believe this goes right inline with my current cpi/ppi/energy prices cooling theory. The tonality seems to be calmed down towards rate hikes at this current time. Summer volume generally Likes to accumulate more than trend. So I expect the trump deal/no deal twice a week to continue until summer is over and the FED new research members appointed by Warsh present us with new market data at which point we may see monetary policy look at more than cpi/nfp/core pce.

Trump: I think year-end inflation will be lower than currently expected. - I want interest rates to decrease. - Regarding the Fed: It’s better to pause rather than raise interest rates.

Falling energy costs drove June inflation dip, but Hormuz blockade pushes oil upward. Analysts warn relief could vanish fast if strait stays shut.