Fed Chair discusses inflation

July 1, Kevin Warsh addressed inflation at ECB Forum, reaffirming 2% target amid persistent 4.1% PCE. No rate cuts signaled.

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#Fed Chair discusses inflation #Anthropic resumes Claude Fable 5 #EU MiCA regulation enforces #Citi cuts Bitcoin and Ether forecasts

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Yeah we have been saying this all along too. When it seemed like everyone was super hawkish on Warsh we kept pointing to the dove scenario with room for looser policy ahead as our base case. His take on us still being in the early innings of this AI revolution plus that capex boom not feeding inflation really highlights the productivity side that lets growth happen without the usual price spikes. Overall it paints a dovish picture for rates which should help liquidity and feel pretty positive for risk assets like BTC. It may take a few months for people to catch on, but once the data start showing Inflation has peaked, then the cuts talks fire up again. Until then, I expect them to hold.

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"Is it inflationary?" - Reporter "It's up to the Central Bank to determine if it's inflationary" - Chair of the Central Bank "...That's why I'm asking..." - Reporter 😂

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Wash says the Fed is no longer sending signals. You haven’t lost your way—you’ve been set free. Before, you watched every word the Fed chair said. Every eyebrow raise. Every pause. Powell said “possible”—you bought. Said “but”—you sold. You joined millions of traders worldwide as lip-readers. But the central bank’s messaging changed every three months. You chased signals, and the signals kept shifting with the data. You were always the last to know the truth. Now Wash has overturned the table. “No more signals.” Figure it out for yourself.

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The chair who refuses to give guidance just gave the most hawkish kind. Warsh went to Sintra and said the quiet part plainly: prices are too high, inflation is the job, and he waved off the AI will save us story. No cut hints. No recession nod. The 2 year heard it. Already at 4.15 and leaning on the 4.25 line, its highest since February 2025. He did not steer the market. He just removed every reason for it to price a cut.

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Hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic The most absurd clause of the Versailles Treaty: reparations imposed on the Allies in the amount of 132 billion gold marks, roughly 47,300 tons of gold (the gold Reichsmark contained a fixed 358 mg of pure gold, with 2,790 marks equaling 1 kg). After the Armistice of Compiègne, Germany was presented with an ultimatum: sign the treaty or face total destruction of the country. Five days later, on 28 June 1919, the Versailles Treaty was signed. The Allied blockade of Germany—claimed in German postwar statistics to have caused 800,000 civilian deaths—was not lifted until 10 January 1920. Causal sequence of hyperinflation 1⃣Inflation did not begin in 1923. It started during the war: between 1914 and 1918, the mark lost roughly half its purchasing power due to internal debt financing through war certificates. 2⃣The budget was consumed by war pensions, social benefits, and an oversized state apparatus that the new republic could not politically dismantle. Raising taxes on industrialists and landowners would have been political suicide. Printing money was easier. 3⃣Wealthy citizens and industrial elites realized inflation was eroding their assets. In fear of an ambitious but naïve tax reform by Finance Minister Erzberger, they began converting war certificates into cash and transferring capital abroad, mainly to the Netherlands. The New York Times at the time estimated capital flight at roughly one quarter of Germany’s GDP in 1923. 4⃣Industrial owners literally dismantled factories and rebuilt them across the border. Newly founded Dutch companies then acquired insolvent German firms, while foreign buyers used strong currencies to strip Germany of cheap assets, goods, and services. 5⃣Capital converted abroad into guilders, dollars, pounds, and francs further accelerated the mark’s collapse — classic external devaluation. 6⃣Domestic tax deficits forced the state into additional borrowing and money printing. 7⃣Under Reichsbank president Havenstein, money printing became ideology. His argument was simple: scarcity of cash was the problem, so the solution was more cash. The more they printed, the worse the “shortage” became. 8⃣On 31 August 1921, Germany paid 1 billion gold marks in reparations. To do so, it bought foreign currency by selling gold and marks, further weakening the currency. Gold flowed out to Switzerland, Denmark, the Netherlands, and the United States. The mark fell from 60 to 100 per dollar. 9⃣Devaluation increased import prices and living costs. 1⃣0⃣In May 1921, the central bank suspended gold convertibility of the mark. 1⃣1⃣Part of the Hamburg banking elite—encouraged even by J. M. Keynes—hoped that a weak mark and a flood of cheap exports would force the Allies to reduce reparations. The bet failed completely. 1⃣2⃣Germany continued borrowing, but the currency temporarily stabilized between roughly 1920–1922. 1⃣3⃣Germany fell behind on payments and technically defaulted. On 11 January 1923, 17,000 French and Belgian troopsentered the Ruhr to secure coal mines and industry as collateral. Germany then began paying reparations and servicing war debts to foreign creditors who had previously bought them cheaply from desperate Germans. 1⃣4⃣The government declared “passive resistance”: Ruhr workers were instructed to strike and refuse cooperation with the occupation forces, while the state continued paying their wages. This accelerated hyperinflation to its peak. Unemployment tripled, prostitution surged, and malnutrition led to fetal deformities. 1⃣5⃣By November 1923, Germany had effectively wiped out its war debt, which had exceeded 30% of the prewar wealth of the empire. 1⃣6⃣On 15 November 1923, the Rentenmark was introduced — a new currency backed by mortgages on land and industrial assets. Twelve zeros were erased from the old mark. Balance sheet 📍At its peak in October 1923, monthly inflation reached approximately 29,500%. 📍The mark lost virtually all value. 📍The president of the Reichsbank died of a heart attack in November 1923. 📍The middle class and petty bourgeoisie were wiped out financially. 📍Farmers shut down production, people began to starve. The price of bread rose from 250 marks to 200 billion marks within 11 months. 📍Unemployment increased sixfold. 📍Suicides, political assassinations, and moral collapse followed. Aftermath Once Germany had effectively “cleansed” itself of imperial debt, American “altruism” suddenly appeared in the form of the Dawes Plan (with J. P. Morgan playing a key behind-the-scenes role), providing an $800 million gold mark loan. By 1929, more than 29 billion marks had flowed into Germany via American credit. The Weimar Republic and Adolf Hitler stood on the threshold of their “golden five-year period” (1924–1929). #Wiemar #hyperinflation