I suspect that the next bull market might make a large number of long-time retail investors question everything they thought they knew. In past bear markets, losing money was easier to cope with—everyone was losing, so we could comfort each other. But things might be different going forward. Bitcoin rises, but your altcoin stays flat. Ethereum surges, yet your altcoin keeps falling. Finally, when a rotation finally comes, by the time it reaches your holding, the money has already moved on to the next story. What’s most painful isn’t the bear market—it’s watching everyone else make money while you’re stuck with a pile of so-called “value coins,” helplessly seeing the bull market pass right by your account. I’m not pessimistic about the future of crypto; in fact, I believe this industry still has tremendous growth potential. But one thing must be acknowledged: As the industry improves, it no longer necessarily means that retail investors like us will profit. In the past, with fewer projects and abundant capital, buying any random altcoin could get you lifted. Now, projects keep launching one after another, and older tokens continue unlocking. If new capital doesn’t keep pace, where will the money come from to unlock everyone’s underwater positions? So now, I’m less concerned about when the next bull market will arrive. I’m more interested in this: When the next bull market comes, who will the market allow to profit—and who will be left holding the bag? We used to believe that if we just endured the bear market, the bull market would come. Now I’m increasingly skeptical—some people may survive the bear market only to be killed by the bull.

I used to think the same way—when my position got too large, I’d rush to add margin to avoid liquidation. But in every case, I still got liquidated. I used to believe that with such large institutional positions, there must be more sophisticated risk controls. Later, I realized that when positions grow too big, psychology becomes just as unbalanced. The heavier the position, the more you feel pressured to add margin; the more margin you add, the harder it is to cut your losses. In the end, the outcome is almost always the same: Whether you’re a retail trader or an institution, if you’re wrong on direction, you get liquidated. In the end, trading isn’t about courage—it’s about position size and discipline.

Dogecoin (#DOGE) is ready to be added back to your watchlist! DOGE is worth reconsidering for your portfolio—not because there’s a new story behind it, but precisely because there isn’t one. Its history is its biggest story. In 2021, it surged from obscurity all the way to around $0.74. Then what happened? It dropped. Then dropped again. It once retraced over 75%, but as market sentiment turned positive once more, it returned. Even more interesting was 2024: DOGE rose approximately 275% for the year, with a single 168.7% surge in November alone. Its greatest value has never been its technology. It’s this: High recognition, strong liquidity, and an established community—when the market goes wild, capital naturally remembers it. So when I look at DOGE, I’m not trying to guess how many points it’ll rise tomorrow. Instead, I’m asking a different question: If the next market cycle enters another wave of mass euphoria, will this veteran meme coin once again become the most familiar choice for capital? History doesn’t prove the future—but it does prove one thing: When DOGE goes crazy, it really doesn’t care about logic.

The data from BNB Chain this time is truly worth paying attention to. Over the past 30 days, BNB Chain recorded over $460 million in net inflows for RWA, ranking first among major blockchains—even surpassing Ethereum, Stellar, and Polygon. Of course, a single metric cannot fully represent a chain’s overall strength, but it does at least indicate one thing: As RWA moves from concept toward real capital and real-world applications, BNB Chain is no longer just a byproduct of an exchange ecosystem—it’s carving out its own position in the blockchain competition. Whether it can sustain this momentum? Let’s keep watching the data.

A summary of profits and losses over the past few years: There are no permanent trends in crypto—only ever-changing cycles. Talk less, research more. Avoid all-in bets, and always keep a backup plan. Don’t believe stories—trust the data. Making money is skill; surviving long-term is the real skill.

My approach to short-term and long-term investing has become increasingly simple: About 70% of my capital is allocated solely to spot trading as my core position. I don’t trade this portion frequently—I aim to ride major trends. As long as the fundamental thesis remains intact, I won’t exit over short-term 20% or 30% fluctuations. After all, the biggest moves are rarely made through frequent trading. Around 20% is held as flexible capital. The rule is simple: I won’t add to my position unless the price drops into my predefined cost zone. Only then do I gradually build my position. This prevents chasing prices higher or averaging down too early, which often leaves you stuck with most of your position at mid-range levels. Less than 10% is used for futures trading. Futures aren’t meant to turn losses into wins—they’re for improving capital efficiency and honing discipline. I keep my futures position under 10% of total capital and limit myself to a maximum of four open positions at once. Two of these can serve as long-term base positions—I hold them as long as the underlying logic holds. The other two are strictly traded as short-term positions, with clear take-profit and stop-loss levels set in advance. If a short-term trade profits, I exit when planned—never let success make me overconfident, and never hold overnight just to chase a second wave. If a trade loses, I accept the loss immediately—once the stop-loss triggers, I exit without averaging down or increasing my next position to compensate. I’m increasingly convinced that the most important thing in investing isn’t being right every time—it’s being able to afford being wrong and holding firm when you’re right. Position stratification essentially gives you backup options: Spot positions capture trends, flexible capital waits for opportunities, and futures allow small-scale speculation. This way, even if my short-term calls are wrong, my overall account’s survival isn’t compromised. Final thought: Don’t let short-term emotions dictate your long-term positioning!

Projects are becoming fewer, and Twitter content is increasingly homogenized—it’s time to adjust our learning approach and investment strategy. In the past crypto market, new projects and narratives emerged constantly; simply leveraging information asymmetry could yield many opportunities. But now, with fewer projects and repetitive narratives, merely scrolling through Twitter and chasing trends is becoming increasingly inefficient. Here are several adjustments we need to make: 1. Shift from information volume to research depth. Reduce exposure to repetitive content; instead, focus on fundamental analysis, capital flows, and market structure to build your own decision-making framework. 2. Move from chasing new projects to identifying existing opportunities. Don’t just focus on new tokens—also pay attention to established projects with consistent product iteration, growing revenues, and compressed valuations. 3. Transition from studying narratives to analyzing capital movements. Listen less to stories and more to trading volume, token distribution, capital inflows/outflows, and token unlocks to assess real demand versus market expectations. 4. Shift from pursuing high multiples to prioritizing risk-reward ratios. As opportunities dwindle, raise your screening standards—emphasize valuation, margin of safety, and position sizing. 5. Move from following opinions to learning methodologies. Stop focusing on what others are buying; instead, study why they bought, when they sold, and how they handle incorrect judgments. 6. Shift from frequent trading to patient waiting. When no compelling opportunities arise, reduce activity—dedicate time to learning and reserve capital for higher-conviction setups. In the past, information asymmetry drove success; in the future, success will depend on cognitive depth, independent judgment, and trading discipline. The market environment has changed—our learning and investment methods must evolve alongside it.

In the past, there were projects everywhere in the crypto space; KOLs could easily grow their followings just by diligently sharing information. Now, projects are becoming increasingly concentrated, information more transparent, and AI has further lowered the barrier to content creation. Those most likely to be left behind in the future are the ones who merely repeat what others have already said. The true moat for KOLs isn’t their follower count, update frequency, or even occasionally catching a few 100x coins—it’s the long-term accumulation of judgment, credibility, and research experience that others cannot easily replicate. In short, previously, people profited from information asymmetry; in the future, they’ll need to profit from cognitive edge and execution.

Have you noticed? Right now, the crypto space has no shortage of KOLs—but what’s in short supply is actually worth writing about. Every day you open Twitter, it’s all about “mindset,” “perspective,” “emotions,” or grand theories. A trivial matter gets dissected by dozens of people, repeating the same few phrases over and over again. Many think KOLs have become watered down—but I’d argue it’s not that they don’t want to produce substantive content; it’s that the entire industry can no longer support so many content creators. And I can say this clearly: this won’t just be the new normal—it will only get worse. Why? Recall a few years ago: whenever a new sector gained traction, dozens—even hundreds—of institutions rushed in, spawning dozens of competitors in the same space. NFTs, DeFi, cross-chain, GameFi—didn’t every single one follow this pattern? Back then, information was the one thing the market had in excess. Today, a project raises funding; tomorrow, another upgrades its protocol; the day after, there’s a partnership, an airdrop, or a token launch. Even if everyone was producing homogenized content, there were always different projects, angles, and news to draw from. But what’s the problem now? After several bull and bear cycles, the market has gradually filtered out the weak. Countless projects have died or gone dormant; even those still alive are often barely functioning—no official updates, no active community, no users. What were once dozens of competing projects in a single sector now may have only a handful still active. And while new projects continue to emerge, truly innovative ones with real users and consistent progress are far fewer than we’d imagine. Projects can die. Sectors can cool. But KOLs can’t stop posting. Before, dozens of projects supported a cohort of content creators. Now, dozens of creators are circling the same few hot topics, recycling the same material. You write it, I write it, he writes it. One piece of news gets spun into ten different bullish interpretations. A routine product update is hailed as a revolution. When there’s nothing left to say, they pivot to emotions, mindset, perspective, and life lessons. I’m not saying these topics have zero value—but when genuine, high-quality information becomes scarce while content production doesn’t shrink accordingly, inflation in content becomes inevitable. Even more realistically, many KOLs rely on exposure, traffic, and sponsorships for income. Even when there’s nothing meaningful to discuss, they must keep posting—otherwise their traffic drops. Ultimately, this is the result of the industry’s transition from wild growth to maturity: the balance between content supply and demand has shifted. Before, there was too much information—everyone scrambled to repost. Now, quality information is limited—and everyone competes to interpret it. In the future, what will truly be scarce won’t be who’s fastest with news or who posts most frequently—but who can cut through the noise and extract genuinely valuable insights. After all, daily content output doesn’t mean daily value output.

The crypto market is too gambling-like, everyone! The day before yesterday, a buddy told me he made $300,000 recently; today, during a voice call, he said he lost it all and now has only $70,000–$80,000 left. Come on, guys, quit gambling! Let me be honest about leverage trading: if your net worth is $10,000, the maximum contract funding you should ever use is $100. Going in with 20x, 50x, or even 100x leverage—it’s all up to fate.