Bitcoin bear market cycles

Bitcoin is in a classic bear market, similar to 2018 and 2022, with prices down nearly 50% from October 2025 highs. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan expects a gradual recovery starting in 2026.

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$GOAT USDT 🐐🚀

GOAT showing strength after bouncing from support. Buyers defended the dip and price is holding above the middle Bollinger band.

Watch 0.0138 resistance — a breakout could send momentum back toward higher levels.

The herd is moving 🐐🔥



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#Bitcoin bear market cycles



$CPOOL

$AVAAI

$AIDOGE

$USDT


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Not sure its gonna happen. We have a little ways to go I am afraid. We are probably gonna see 10-15% lower on BTC, not immediately. That drop is a great thing though. Some really good projects will be on sale. Being prepared for times like these are key. Staying calm is a must. Blowing off the B.S. and look at what people and countries with money are doing. The people crying or saying its dead are the ones who did not prepare. Misery loves company. STAY POSITIVE AND POSITIVE THINGS HAPPEN.

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In May 2022, I said BTC’s top would come in September or October 2025. And it happened. Fractals are real in everything in nature, including Bitcoin. You see fractals across timeframes from 1-second charts to weekly charts. You see them in macroeconomics, in Forex, and in human behavior. I took this so seriously that since 2023 I have consistently been talking about October 2025, and we even built dedicated charts for it at @Alphractal. Even if I had been wrong, I would have sold all my crypto anyway, because there would be no reason to keep holding. My advice is simple. Follow a strategy, no matter which one, supported by strong metrics. When the signal triggers, buy or sell. Do not get emotionally attached to investments or to fundamentals. If you do, emotions will take control. And when emotions lead, you buy wrong and sell wrong. That is exactly what happens to 94 percent of investors. Even if some of my hypotheses turn out to be wrong, you still need to take calculated risks, because without risk, the game is simply not worth playing.

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I don’t care if Bitcoin goes to 80K. The reality is it’s heading below 59K soon. The trend is bearish. Recovery won’t take weeks it will take months, maybe even years, before we see a real reversal to new highs. Stay objective, not emotional.

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When this kicks off, #Bitcoin will drop into the 50k’s. Though that will hardly matter when thousands of innocents are killed, in a sovereign country that has never threatened the US. Of course, we know whose orders they are really obeying.

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I did this shitty napkin math a couple years back and noticed that bitcoin seems to peak 17 months after each halving and bottoms 31 months after each halving (just counted the monthly ticks at the bottom) That would have put the top for this cycle around september 20 2025. Wild thing is it came around oct 7 iirc so pretty damn close (of course I didnt have any meaningful amount of corn to sell as I roundtripped ordinals so didnt do anything with my thesis lol) But if cycle plays out same way as others (which it seemingly has so far) then bottom should come in around november 20 (maybe early december) Dunno what to do with this info other than try to save as much cash as I can try to buy some corn at theoretical november lows But I’m gay and retarded so I dunno