AQPulse | U.S. Market Recap | Thu, Feb 5 Today wasn’t a normal risk-off day. It was an AI valuation reset plus a labor shock, with CapEx skepticism spilling across duration. The same software shockwave kept spreading, but the difference today was confirmation from labor. When growth momentum softens while multiples are already compressing, the tape stops forgiving “spend first, monetize later.” Nasdaq 100 extending the drawdown is a symptom of that repricing, not a system-wide liquidation. CapEx became the headline risk. Google’s 2026 CapEx guidance (up to 185B) kept investors focused on the monetization gap. After the close, Amazon added fuel by signaling roughly 200B of 2026 investment into data centers and equipment, and the market reacted fast. This is not “AI is dead.” It is “prove the cash flow.” Labor tightened the screws. JOLTs job openings fell to the lowest level since 2020, jobless claims surprised higher, and Challenger job cuts printed the biggest January since 2009. That combination increases sensitivity to any earnings or guidance that looks like “cost up, payoff later.” Crypto didn’t hedge. Bitcoin broke below 64000 as forced de-leveraging fed on itself, reinforcing the broader risk premium. Cross-asset stress is rising, but the center of gravity remains growth-duration and AI-adjacent software. Street lens (why this matters) The market is actively re-labeling software. What used to be priced as an AI beneficiary is being screened as an AI victim until proven otherwise. This is a business model audit plus multiple compression, not a blanket market break. Market snapshot $SPX -1.23% 6798.40 $DJI -1.20% 48908.72 $NDX -1.38% 24548.69 $RUT -1.79% 2577.65 Rates and FX US 2Y 3.555% -> 3.461% US 10Y 4.278% -> 4.188% $DXY 97.641 -> 97.963 Commodities Gold 4986.40 -> 4798.10 WTI 64.47 -> 63.12 Nat Gas 3.458 -> 3.516 Macro prints Initial Jobless Claims 231K (est 212K, prev 209K) JOLTs Job Openings 6542K (est 7250K, prev 7146K) EIA Natural Gas Inventories -360 (est -374.89, prev -242) Next up (Fri, Feb 6) UMich Consumer Sentiment (Feb prelim) UMich Inflation Expectations (Feb prelim) Fed: Jefferson speaks (voter) Baker Hughes Rig Count Earnings premarket: CGC Ex dividend: INTC, WFC, HWM AQPulse take (calming framework) This is repricing, not rupture. But the pain pocket has widened from software into broader growth duration because labor is confirming slower momentum. What reduces uncertainty from here: 3 checkpoints 1. Does selling stay concentrated in AI software and high-duration growth, or spill into credit and true cyclicals 2. Do yields keep falling in an orderly way (no funding stress), rather than whipsawing on policy fear 3. Does breadth stabilize after this drawdown, or do small caps and equal-weight also lose the bid If these hold, this remains valuation compression and positioning unwind, not contagion. AQPulse tracks the shift so you trade rules, not headlines.

@MichaelWehrmann @ChuloPutaz Should wait. They are crashing the markets with derivatives. Turns out those who predicted $5 BSV were right this entire time.

We are exiting the "AI Hype" era and entering the "AI Shakeout" era. Watch $AMZN guidance tonight. If they don't show a clear path to AI profitability, the tech sector's "valuation floor" will drop another 10%. The play: Stay heavy on cash, watch the $68k level on $BTC, and stop buying the dip until the Capex panic bottoms out. Are you catching the falling knife or waiting for the floor? Let’s discuss below. 👇 #Trading #AI #Stocks #Crypto2026

Tesla just plunged after earnings—expected the worst, but still a shock. Looks like the EV momentum is cracking under pressure. Apple staff layoffs hit the stock hard—timing's terrible for the iPhone giant. Retail sales aren’t helping either. Amazon slides despite revenue soar—investors eyeing slowing growth and what’s next. Retail binge may be cooling. Meta's latest dip warns of ad spend slowdown—hints at tougher times ahead for digital giants. Gold rises as stocks drop—safe haven suddenly in vogue amid turbulence. Oil spikes fueled by supply worries—OPEC action tightening the screws again. Bitcoin crawled back above 30K—crypto markets are alive and kicking despite the chaos.

OVER $5T WIPED OUT CASUALLY IN 24 HOURS ⚠️ Gold: −5.5% (~$1.9T wiped) Silver: −19% (~$980B gone) S&P 500: −0.95% (~$580B erased) Nasdaq: −2.5% (~$1T lost) Crypto: −6.7% (~$180B gone) And all these happened without any major news! Totally normal, right? 🤨

and Hong Kong show relative resilience. 💱 The dollar firms ahead of key central bank decisions. EUR and GBP ease, USD/JPY stays elevated. 🛢️ Commodities soften: gold and oil edge lower, silver remains highly volatile. ₿ bitcoin hovers near the

☀️ Morning Notes | Thursday – February 5, 2026 | Global Agenda 🏛️ MAIN POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE DAY 1) U.S.-China line Contact occurred between Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi. Trade topics and regional security agendas stood out in the meeting. 2) U.S.-Iran line The location/format topic of the ongoing talks between the U.S. and Iran remained on the agenda. While the U.S. side wants to expand the scope of the talks, the Iranian side emphasizes that the core of the discussions should remain on the nuclear topic. 3) U.S. domestic topic (institutional calendar) Some publications from the federal statistics agency were moved outside the calendar. The JOLTS release was postponed and does not appear in the February 5 calendar. 📅 UPDATED ECONOMIC CALENDAR – FEBRUARY 5, 2026 (THURSDAY) | EET 🇬🇧 United Kingdom 15:00 – BoE Interest Rate Decision 🇪🇺 Eurozone 16:15 – ECB Interest Rate Decision 🇺🇸 United States 16:30 – Weekly Jobless Claims 16:30 – Continuing Jobless Claims 16:30 – 4-Week Average Claims 18:30 – Natural Gas Inventories 🎯 MAIN THEME OF THE DAY The agenda features major central banks + U.S. labor weekly flow; on the political side, the U.S. has two foreign policy lines (China and Iran) on the table at the same time. #bitcoin #gold #bist100

If you're long-term bullish on AI infrastructure demand—which remains strongly supported—this dip in $CIFR and $IREN feels more like a gift than a falling knife. The dumps were caused by $BTC weakness and Anthropic's release of Claude Cowork AI automation plugins (legal tools).

🔥 Software Crash Hits Private Equity Stocks Expert Warns: "The bedbugs of this credit cycle are about to emerge" On Tuesday, private equity giants sharply declined in value. The reason? A deep sell-off in software stocks is now beginning to spread into the financial system. 📉 Sharp Declines in Stocks Apollo ( $APO): -4.8% Blackstone ( $BX): -5.2% $KKR: -9.7% Ares Management ( $ARES): -10.3% Software ETF ( $IGV): At its lowest level since April 2025 💥 "Software-Annihilation" Period Andreas Steno Larsen, CEO of Steno Research, says the software sector has long been an inflated bubble: "Software was the golden child of private equity and private credit markets. Now it's time for reckoning." 🧐 Main Problem: Software companies were seen as "unbreakable moats" Productive AI is directly threatening these business models Corporate software spending is slowing down Valuations have started to collapse ⚠️ The Real Danger: Private Credit Software accounted for 25% of private equity acquisitions in recent years These companies were largely financed through private credit Now, as profits and valuations fall, credit portfolios are at risk Larsen's warning is clear: "Lenders have serious 'bags' on their balance sheets. The bedbugs of this credit cycle will likely emerge here." ("Bedbug" = hidden problems in the system that surface during a crisis) 🧠 Striking Analogy According to Larsen, today: Apollo stock is almost the same trade as Bitcoin Both are playing on a "shadow money system" and abundant liquidity In other words: When liquidity is present, they soar When liquidity is withdrawn, they fall sharply with high beta 🧾 Overall Assessment What does this mean? The software crash is not limited to technology There is a risk of spreading to private equity and private credit markets One of the most severe market rotations is happening in 2026: ❌ Software / growth ✅ Energy / real assets / cash flow 📌 Summary: As the software bubble bursts, serious problems may surface in the private credit world, which financed this bubble. The real crisis may not yet be fully visible. Source: finviz