Is the Era of DEXs Finally Arriving? via @cryptoquant_com A structural shift is taking place in crypto trading. In September 2026, the DEX/CEX spot trading volume ratio reached roughly 25%, highlighting how decentralized exchanges are gaining ground against centralized platforms. Some claim DEX market share has surged over 1,100% in five years. That figure depends heavily on the starting point and methodology, so it should not be treated as confirmed. Three trends are worth watching: Better liquidity, execution, and user experience on DEXs. The rise of perpetual DEXs such as Hyperliquid. Growing demand for self-custodial financial services. But there is an important counterpoint. CryptoQuant’s UNI exchange-reserve chart shows roughly 109.3 million UNI held across exchanges, up sharply from around 55–60 million in 2024. At the chart’s endpoint, UNI trades near $7. Rising exchange reserves can indicate more tokens available for trading and potential selling pressure. They do not prove that holders are about to sell. And UNI token flows are not the same thing as Uniswap’s trading activity. Likewise, a rising DEX/CEX ratio can reflect declining CEX volume, not just stronger DEX demand. Incentive-driven trading can also inflate reported activity. My view: DeFi is becoming a more important part of financial infrastructure, but we should distinguish platform adoption from token performance. The numbers I will watch next are absolute DEX volume, active users, protocol revenue, and exchange reserves. A sustainable bull case needs real users and fee generation, even after incentives fade. DeFi’s long-term opportunity looks compelling. Its success still has to be measured, not assumed. https://t.co/0pAqWeuDDA

Bitcoin Shows Signs of an October Bottom as U.S. Midterms Approach via @cryptoquant_com October is often called “Uptober,” but xWIN expected some downside before a sustained rally. High U.S. bond yields, expensive oil, slowing ETF inflows and profit-taking left Bitcoin vulnerable to leveraged liquidations. Now, signs of a potential bottom are emerging. On October 12, markets priced roughly an 18% chance of an October Fed hike, while Brent crude had eased from nearly $110 to around $103. With the November 3 midterms approaching, election scenarios are becoming clearer, although the Senate remains closely contested. Less political uncertainty after the vote could help investors reassess allocations. Three on-chain charts support cautious optimism. Exchange BTC reserves remain low despite a recent rebound. Apparent Demand has recovered sharply from deeply negative levels, though it remains below zero. Whale holdings have risen to around 3 million BTC and stayed elevated through the price correction. These developments suggest conditions for a bottom are improving. Confirmation requires sustained ETF inflows, stronger U.S. spot buying and continued demand recovery. “Uptober” need not mean uninterrupted gains: a correction can build the foundation for the next advance. https://t.co/mtYsUiJEot

The Strong 12 Months After U.S. Midterms: Could Bitcoin Benefit? via @cryptoquant_com Since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen in all 19 twelve-month periods following U.S. midterm elections, averaging 15.4%. The third presidential year has also historically been the strongest. Reduced political uncertainty may support risk-taking, but these patterns do not prove causation. Bitcoin gained 24.5%, 44.9% and 92.3% in the twelve months after the 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterms. Yet it fell 45.5% in the first month after the 2018 election. Three observations cannot establish a reliable rule. CryptoQuant's chart shows that price and active addresses can diverge. Addresses are not individual buyers and do not directly measure ETF demand. Interest rates and regulation remain critical. The U.S. 10-year yield was 5.28% on October 2, while a September procedural vote on the CLARITY Act failed. Clear election results do not automatically ease financial conditions or resolve regulatory uncertainty. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $241.1 million in net inflows from September 28 to October 2. After the election, watch whether yields stabilize, buying persists and regulation advances. Political relief could help BTC, but sustained gains still require supportive market conditions. History offers context, not a guarantee. https://t.co/yHybMqLLqs?

Bitcoin Between Two Walls: High Yields and Profit-Taking Meet ETF Demand via @cryptoquant_com High U.S. Treasury yields, uncertainty ahead of the midterm elections, and profit-taking weigh on prices. AI investment may also compete for capital, although direct flows from Bitcoin into AI stocks have not been established. Spot Bitcoin ETFs remain a key support, but inflows have slowed. Farside data show net inflows of about $2.39 billion on September 21–25, versus just $51.2 million across September 28–October 1. CryptoQuant's Realized Cap chart shows a modest recovery after declining earlier in 2026, suggesting improvement in the capital represented by coins' last-moved prices. However, this is not a direct measure of cash inflows, and changes across age bands also reflect coins aging. Funding rates have generally remained slightly positive, easing toward zero at the chart's endpoint. They show less overheating than earlier rally peaks, but cannot guarantee limited liquidation risk. The key is whether spot buying broadens beyond ETFs and absorbs profit-taking. Neither wall is permanent. Watch demand and long-term yields, and remain prepared for a move in either direction. https://t.co/ekatiamTus

First U.S. Rate Hike in Three Years Looms: What Bitcoin’s 2023 Chart Reveals via @cryptoquant_com The Fed is approaching a decision that could deliver its first rate hike since July 2023, with markets pricing the probability above 90%. But a hike does not automatically mean Bitcoin will fall. The chart compares Bitcoin’s price with short-term holder SOPR around four rate hikes in 2023. STH-SOPR tracks coins held for less than 155 days: above 1 indicates transfers at a profit; below 1 signals losses. Transfers do not always represent sales. Reactions varied. After February’s hike, SOPR dipped below 1. Following March’s increase, it often remained above 1 as BTC climbed into April. Loss-taking became more evident after May’s hike. After July’s increase, SOPR hovered near 1 before plunging during August’s selloff. The time gap means the hike alone cannot explain that decline. This time, guidance on further tightening may matter more than the decision itself. An expected hike could even trigger relief buying if the outlook is less hawkish than feared. Watch whether SOPR stays below 1 alongside falling prices or quickly recovers as BTC stabilizes. The key is whether loss-taking persists and buyers absorb selling pressure—not simply the rate-hike headline. https://t.co/AFYTxmd3Oz’s-2023-Chart-Reveals

Bitcoin’s Unrealized Losses Plunge, but Spot Demand Remains Weak via @cryptoquant_com Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Loss (NUL) has fallen sharply from around 0.18 in mid-August to 0.08, as BTC recovered from roughly $65,000 to $77,200. The decline indicates that much of the loss accumulated during the correction has been erased, reducing pressure on underwater holders to sell. This is an important improvement in market structure. When NUL rises, more capital is trapped at a loss and investors become more vulnerable to panic selling. Its return to relatively low levels suggests that holder stress has eased and the risk of broad capitulation has declined. However, the latest move also requires caution. NUL has edged higher from its early-September low as Bitcoin pulled back from above $80,000. Unrealized losses are beginning to rebuild as the recovery loses momentum. Meanwhile, spot demand remains weak, Bitcoin ETFs are recording outflows, and the rebound continues to depend heavily on futures activity. Lower holder stress can reduce selling pressure, but it does not automatically create new demand. Bitcoin therefore appears more stable, but not yet decisively bullish. A sustainable recovery requires NUL to remain contained while spot demand strengthens and BTC breaks the $80,000–$83,000 resistance zone with genuine cash-market buying. https://t.co/5QpMB5eTYu’s-Unrealized-Losses-Plunge,-but-Spot-Demand-Remains-Weak

Has Bitcoin Become “Digital Gold”? Gold Correlation Hits a Six-Year High as U.S. Debt Tops $40 Trillion via @cryptoquant_com Bitcoin has broken above $80,000, but another development may be even more important: its relationship with gold. By late August 2026, the 90-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and gold had risen to its highest level in roughly six years, while Bitcoin’s correlation with Nasdaq weakened. The key driver is the return of the “debasement trade.” U.S. federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, long-term Treasury yields remain elevated, and concerns over the sustainability of public finances are growing. In this environment, investors appear more willing to hold scarce assets such as gold and Bitcoin as protection against currency dilution. This time, Bitcoin is also being supported by spot ETF inflows, adding a structural source of demand that did not exist in earlier cycles. Similar patterns appeared in late 2020 and late 2022: Bitcoin’s correlation with gold rose, then later declined as BTC entered a stronger, more independent rally. That does not mean Bitcoin has permanently become “digital gold.” Correlations can reverse quickly, and Bitcoin remains far more volatile. The key question now is whether BTC can continue rising even if gold pauses. If so, it may suggest that macro-hedge demand is evolving into Bitcoin-specific demand. https://t.co/z18upHJqMX“Digital-Gold”?-Gold-Correlation-Hits-a-Six-Year-High-as-U.S.-Debt-Tops-$40-Trillion

Who Bought $3 Billion in Bitcoin ETFs — and Why Did the Inflows Suddenly Stop? via @cryptoquant_com U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $202 million in net outflows on Aug. 28, ending a nine-day inflow streak that had brought in roughly $3.04 billion. Why did money rush in first? Three factors likely mattered: improving liquidity expectations in the U.S., Bitcoin’s sharp price recovery, and a major short squeeze. CryptoQuant data also suggests ETF demand does not appear only at low prices. In some cases, inflows become stronger after Bitcoin has already risen, implying a feedback loop: price recovery attracts ETF demand, which can then reinforce the rally. Who is buying? Recent 13F filings show participation from banks, hedge funds, investment advisers, sovereign wealth funds and university endowments. That does not mean every ETF buyer is outright bullish. Some institutions may hedge with CME futures or use ETF positions for arbitrage and market-making. The Aug. 28 outflow was small compared with the prior $3.04 billion inflow. For now, it looks more like profit-taking and position adjustment than a clear exit by institutions. The key question for September is whether those flows return. If ETF inflows resume while Bitcoin holds or reclaims $80,000, the case for a broader institutional allocation becomes much stronger. https://t.co/PB6tPN9Z56—-and-Why-Did-the-Inflows-Suddenly-Stop?

Is the “Buy Bitcoin, Boost the Stock Price” Era Over? DAT Companies Face a New Reality via @cryptoquant_com Financial Times reports that the combined market capitalization of 50 major Bitcoin treasury companies has fallen from about $150 billion in July 2025 to roughly $67 billion in August 2026, wiping out more than $80 billion in value. The message is clear: simply holding Bitcoin is no longer enough to justify a premium valuation. The first wave of DAT companies benefited from a powerful cycle—higher share prices enabled new fundraising, which funded more BTC purchases and reinforced investor expectations. But as Bitcoin weakened and equity premiums compressed, that flywheel slowed. The market is now shifting from “How much BTC do you own?” to “How efficiently do you manage digital capital?” Future DAT leaders will need to focus on BTC per share, disciplined financing, balance-sheet resilience, governance, transparency, and integration with their core business. Investors also have alternatives such as spot Bitcoin ETFs, so every DAT company must answer a tougher question: why should investors buy your stock instead of Bitcoin itself? This is not the end of the DAT model. It is the end of the era when buying BTC alone was enough to lift a company’s valuation. https://t.co/U1fB1BWlDl“Buy-Bitcoin,-Boost-the-Stock-Price”-Era-Over?-DAT-Companies-Face-a-New-Reality

Bitcoin Stalls at $80K: On-Chain Data Reveals Who Is Selling via @cryptoquant_com Bitcoin has again tested $80,000 but failed to hold above it. ETF inflows and lower U.S. Treasury yields have supported demand, while profit-taking by existing holders continues to cap the upside. On-chain data shows that nearly every investor group has returned to profit. The unrealized PnL indicator stands at 21.1 for long-term holders, 13.4 for short-term holders, 13.9 for one-day-to-one-month capital, and 5.3 for the newest investors. This signals a healthier market, but also means more holders now have profits available to realize. The SOPR Ratio, calculated by dividing LTH-SOPR by STH-SOPR, briefly rose to around 1.4 as Bitcoin approached $80,000. This suggests long-term holders were realizing profits at a higher relative rate than short-term holders. The ratio has since fallen to 0.93, indicating that short-term holders’ realized performance is now relatively stronger. A sustained break above $80,000, backed by continued ETF and spot demand, could open the way toward $88,000–$90,000. However, a loss of the $75,000–$76,000 support zone could weaken short-term holder profitability and accelerate the correction. The key question is not whether Bitcoin can briefly touch $80,000, but whether new demand can absorb selling from profitable holders. https://t.co/qtloPVR96C