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Steven | Crypto Research

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DTCC OFFICIALLY TOKENIZES SECURITIES: IS THE RWA MARKET ENTERING A NEW PHASE? On October 28, DTCC, the largest U.S. operator of securities custody, clearing, and settlement infrastructure, announced the live deployment of its securities tokenization service on the Canton Network @CantonNetwork and its proprietary blockchain. - This is a significant development for the Real World Assets (RWA) sector, as one of the most important institutions in traditional finance begins integrating custodied securities into blockchain-based processes. 1. What is the current size of the RWA market? According to data from @RWA_xyz on October 29, 2026: - $146 billion: Value of tokenized U.S. Treasury bonds and related funds, nearly flat over 30 days (-0.06%). - $37.4 billion: Value of tokenized stocks and ETFs, up 14.69% over 30 days. - $101.4 billion: Value of token transfers within the stock segment over 30 days, down 87.16% compared to the prior period. 2. What is DTCC bringing onto the blockchain? - DTCC is starting with 34 eligible securities, representing approximately $30 trillion in custodied assets. - Through DTC, participating institutions can convert ownership rights of custodied securities into blockchain-based tokens and revert them back to traditional ledger systems when needed. - Tokens are fully backed 1:1 by underlying securities and maintain corresponding rights as defined by the service’s mechanics. 3. The most notable feature: 24/7 asset transfer capability - DTCC’s service enables 24/7 token transfers between registered wallets within the same network. Twenty institutions have signed agreements for access, including JPMorgan, Citi, Fidelity, and Morgan Stanley. => The participation of major financial institutions could lay the foundation for deeper integration of tokenized securities into asset management, payment systems, and operational workflows of financial institutions.

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GALAXY RESEARCH: HAS BITCOIN FORMED A BOTTOM? IS THIS THE RIGHT TIME TO ACCUMULATE BTC? On October 26, Galaxy Research published a report titled “Why Now Is the Time to Add and Hold BTC,” authored by Alex Thorn, Chief Research Officer at Galaxy. - In the report, Galaxy presents a clear assessment: Bitcoin’s bear market may have ended in June 2026, and BTC is currently in an accumulation phase ahead of a new growth cycle. 1. Technical indicators support the possibility that BTC has formed a bottom - Bitcoin has closed above its 50-week moving average (MA50) for five consecutive weeks, after spending 44 weeks trading below it. - According to Galaxy, in all four historical instances where BTC reclaimed the MA50 after being below it for at least 20 weeks, prices rose within one year, with gains of 1,497%, 128%, 55%, and 142% respectively. => Additionally, the 200-week MA continued to act as support during the recent correction. Galaxy also notes that the June 2026 low aligns with the timing of previous halving cycle bottoms. However, the historical sample size is small and does not guarantee repetition. 2. Selling pressure from speculative institutional players has eased - CME data shows that net long positions among asset managers dropped from 43,300 BTC to 18,400 BTC—a 57% decline from BTC’s peak. Meanwhile, net short positions among leveraged funds fell from 71,400 BTC to 30,600 BTC. - This reflects a contraction in arbitrage strategies between spot ETFs and futures contracts, rather than a simple shift of capital into bearish bets on BTC. *Notably, 13F filings reveal that nine major institutions reduced their ETF holdings by approximately 68,000 BTC equivalent between Q3 2025 and Q2 2026. In contrast, all other reporting institutions collectively increased holdings by about 20,000 BTC. => According to Galaxy, most selling pressure originated from short-term capital and trading strategies, while long-term investor fundamentals remained relatively stable. Another signal: spot ETFs have accumulated an additional ~87,000 BTC since the June low, per Galaxy data. 3. Macroeconomic context reinforces the case for holding Bitcoin - Galaxy argues that Bitcoin’s long-term outlook is supported by mounting fiscal pressures in the U.S. The report notes U.S. public debt has reached approximately $40.44 trillion, with the FY2026 budget deficit nearing $2 trillion. Rising debt servicing costs are straining the ability to sustain prolonged monetary tightening. - Galaxy contends that the risk of fiat currency depreciation will continue to reinforce Bitcoin’s role as a scarce asset independent of government or institutional issuance. => This is Galaxy’s long-term investment thesis—it does not imply that BTC will always rise when inflation or public debt increases. 4. Market sentiment is shifting focus away from Bitcoin - Galaxy observes a recurring pattern seen during 2015–2016 and 2018–2019: financial markets are focused on blockchain technology but paying less attention to Bitcoin itself. => In 2026, institutional attention has increasingly turned toward stablecoins, tokenization, and AI. - However, circulating stablecoin supply has surged 129% since early 2024 to approximately $304 billion, while BTC remains significantly below its all-time high. => According to Galaxy, this suggests liquidity still exists within the crypto ecosystem—just not yet flowing back into Bitcoin. 5. Conclusion from @glxyresearch: Buy and Hold BTC - The report concludes that Bitcoin’s bottom has likely formed, selling pressure is weakening, and the current environment presents a compelling opportunity to accumulate and hold long-term. - They also note that $BTC has demonstrated its ability to trade above $125,000 and see no fundamental reason why it cannot return to that level. However, Galaxy provides no guarantees regarding timing or magnitude of future price movements. - What do you think?

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GALAXY RESEARCH: CRYPTO STARTUP VALUATIONS HIT PEAK, BUT FUNDRAISING SIZE DROPS 40% On October 23, Galaxy Research released its VC Vital Signs report, updating the venture capital investment landscape for crypto companies in Q3 2026. - Data reveals a somewhat contradictory trend: company valuations continue to rise, while the median deal size has declined significantly. *Here are three key takeaways: 1. Capital continues to flow into early-stage projects - In Q3 2026, pre-seed deals accounted for approximately 25% of total transactions, while late-stage companies represented 24%. - This indicates that investment activity remains active in new startups, rather than being concentrated solely on firms with established products and revenue. => However, this reflects the volume of deals, not the total capital invested. Therefore, it cannot be concluded that pre-seed stages are attracting more capital than other stages. 2. Valuations rise, but deal sizes shrink - According to Galaxy Research, the average valuation for VC-backed crypto companies reached around $90 million—the highest level in the observed data series. - Meanwhile, the median deal size dropped from $5 million in Q2 to approximately $3 million in Q3—a 40% decline. - These two metrics reflect different aspects: valuation represents the price assigned to a company during funding rounds, while deal size reflects the actual capital raised. => Rising valuations alongside smaller fundraising amounts suggest that funds are still willing to accept high valuations but are becoming more cautious about the scale of their disbursements. *However, changes in the composition of surveyed companies may also influence these statistics. 3. How does VC capital impact the crypto market? - It’s important to distinguish between venture capital invested in crypto companies and actual capital flowing into secondary token markets. - Most VC deals involve equity stakes or private investment agreements with varying terms on valuation, allocation, and lock-up periods. - Therefore, rising startup valuations do not necessarily imply a corresponding increase in a token’s fully diluted valuation (FDV), nor do they conclusively signal the start of a new altcoin bull cycle. => If this trend continues, crypto projects may still access capital at relatively high valuations—but will need to accept smaller fundraising amounts and demonstrate more efficient capital utilization. Source: @glxyresearch Galaxy Research – VC Vital Signs, October 23, 2026

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GLASSNODE: ETF CAPITAL OUTFLOW, LEVERAGE HAS NOT COOLED DOWN Glassnode’s Market Pulse report for Week 42, published on October 12 with data through October 11, noted a ~3% decline in $BTC for the week. Selling pressure increased in both ETFs and derivatives markets, while Open Interest remained nearly unchanged. 1. ETFs Shift to Net Outflows - U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $701.6 million, compared to net inflows of $117.9 million the prior week. Trading volume rose slightly from $11 billion to $11.3 billion, but higher volume does not equate to new buying capital. Net flows indicate that the ETF channel has shifted from supportive to a source of selling pressure this week. 2. Sellers Gain Momentum, Derivatives Positions Have Not Yet Contracted - Perpetual CVD turned from a positive $49.5 million to a negative $681.8 million, reflecting dominant active selling over active buying. During the same period, futures Open Interest remained around $36.7 billion, while long funding payments decreased by approximately 25.8%. Although prices adjusted, Open Interest has not significantly declined, so there is insufficient evidence to conclude that leverage has been meaningfully unwound. 3. Realized Cap Continues to Rise; Most Supply Remains Profitable - Monthly Realized Cap change increased from 1.1% to 1.2%, while the percentage of supply in profit decreased slightly from 74.5% to 71.4%. Realized Cap values coins based on their last movement price, so this increase does not reflect newly confirmed cash inflows. The data shows on-chain cost basis continues to rise, yet the majority of supply remains profitable and could generate additional profit-taking pressure. => In my view, this correction has not been accompanied by a clear contraction in derivatives positions. To assess recovery potential, we must monitor whether ETF outflows stabilize and whether active selling pressure subsides; Open Interest should be analyzed relative to BTC price movements to mitigate distortions from price volatility. => Personally, I lean toward the scenario where $BTC needs to re-accumulate or may further correct to retest lower price levels in the near term. — What are your thoughts?

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TOKEN2049 SINGAPORE 2026: TRADITIONAL FINANCE IS DEEPENING ITS ENGAGEMENT WITH CRYPTO Many may find Token2049 less exciting now, with fewer flashy moments than before—and that’s actually reasonable, as crypto has matured significantly, and content tailored for retail investors has become less prominent. - This year’s program dedicates substantial focus to financial institutions, alongside tokenization, AI, and blockchain security. 1. Financial Institutions Are Diving Deeper Into Operational Mechanics - The event features leadership from BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, Nasdaq, and Franklin Templeton. Discussions around custody, payments, and trading of tokenized assets reveal that the scope has expanded beyond mere crypto investment. To bring assets onto the blockchain, institutions must still resolve ownership, compliance, and integration with existing systems. 2. Tokenization Now Has Concrete Products - On October 8, Securitize announced a product representing 12 U.S. equities on Solana, including Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. Each token is 1:1 backed by underlying shares and structured as a security entitlement; token holders are not automatically registered shareholders. Initial trading will occur during extended hours, with 24/7 trading and integration with new platforms still in development. - In simple terms, tokenization translates ownership rights into a tradable structure on the blockchain. Its value lies in enabling transferability, settlement, and integration into financial applications. To assess real-world effectiveness, one must examine liquidity, costs, and holder rights—not just the number of tokenized assets. 3. Privacy and Post-Quantum Security Are Discussed in Greater Detail - The Quantum & Privacy Day, hosted by Quantus and the NEAR Foundation on October 8, focused on signature algorithm selection, account migration, and post-quantum cryptography deployment. These directly impact how blockchains protect assets and user data. While increased discussion doesn’t yet determine which projects will prevail, it confirms that long-term security is now a core part of development planning. 4. AI Agents Must Be Evaluated by Real-World Utility - For AI agents, I care about their ability to execute tasks and conduct transactions within clearly defined permissions. To evaluate any product, ask: What are users paying for? Where does revenue come from? Are service costs reasonable? Simply seeing frequent appearances at conferences isn’t enough to confirm a sustainable demand model. => I view this year’s TOKEN2049 as a meaningful step in connecting crypto with traditional finance. Products are becoming more concrete—but adoption must still be validated by real users, capital flows, and operational performance after the event.

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SUI BASECAMP 2026 DAY 2 HIGHLIGHTS: SAMSUNG WALLET, CIRCLE, HASHI, AND FINANCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE FOR AI AGENTS Sui Basecamp 2026 in Singapore concluded after two days filled with announcements centered on stablecoins, Bitcoin finance, and AI agents. Day 2 primarily focused on user accessibility, liquidity movement, and real-world applications. Here are four key updates I’d like to summarize from Day 2: 1. Samsung Wallet to Integrate USDC on Sui - Samsung Wallet will support storing and transferring USDC on Sui, with an initial rollout targeting approximately 82 million eligible Galaxy devices in the U.S., expected by late October 2026. - Integrating into a pre-existing wallet app can simplify stablecoin usage, particularly by reducing the need to manage transaction fees using native tokens. => However, 82 million eligible devices do not equate to 82 million new Sui users. Actual adoption rates will need to be evaluated after the feature launches. 2. Circle Deploys CCTP V2 on Sui - Circle announced the deployment of CCTP V2 on Sui, enabling native USDC transfers between Sui and compatible blockchains via a burn-and-mint mechanism. - Instead of using wrapped tokens, USDC is burned on the source chain and an equivalent amount is minted on the destination chain. This reduces reliance on bridge-issued representative assets, though smart contract and asset-transfer infrastructure risks remain. 3. Sui Agent Pass Introduces AI Agent Access Controls - Following Day 1’s discussions on the Agentic Economy, Sui introduced Agent Pass to establish permissions for AI agents when executing transactions or managing assets. - As presented, users can set budgets and define operational limits—including scope, duration, or transaction conditions. Agents operate only within these predefined boundaries rather than having full control over assets. - Agent Pass focuses on authorization, while the previously introduced Verifiable Agent Arbiter addresses verification. Together, they resolve: what actions an agent is permitted to take, and how compliance with rules is proven. 4. Hashi Announces Over $500M in Commitments for Bitcoin Finance - Sui also updated progress on Hashi—an infrastructure designed to unlock Bitcoin liquidity for DeFi applications on Sui. - At the event, Hashi revealed over 20 partners and more than $500 million in committed capital. Anchorage Digital was mentioned as providing institutional custody solutions. => The model plans to use BTC as collateral to issue hBTC on Sui, enabling lending, borrowing, and vault services. => $500 million in committed capital differs from actual TVL. The real volume of assets entering Hashi will only be known once the system is live, with data on deposited BTC, circulating hBTC, and redemption activity available. 5. Two-Day Summary of Sui Basecamp Overall, this year’s Basecamp announcements centered on three core pillars: - Infrastructure: Sui Tunnels, 40.6 million TPS testing, and AI agent verification infrastructure. - Distribution: Samsung Wallet integration and broader access to stablecoin users via mainstream apps. - Liquidity & Applications: Circle CCTP V2, Hashi, DeFi products, and permissioning for AI agents. Sui is clearly aiming to integrate blockchain infrastructure with stablecoin payments, Bitcoin liquidity, and automated financial applications. However, most announcements remain forward-looking—real-world deployment and effectiveness will require additional time to evaluate. @SuiNetwork @SuiNetwork_VN #SuiBasecamp

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SUI BASECAMP 2026 DAY 1: KEY TAKEAWAYS On Day 1 of Sui Basecamp 2026, sui:native announced several major updates, demonstrating their effort to unify AI agents, finance, and blockchain into a cohesive development direction. 1. Sui Achieves 40.6 Million TPS - One of the most notable highlights of Day 1 was a live stress test recording a throughput of 40,614,180 TPS—approximately 6.7 times higher than the 6.08 million TPS recorded in July and surpassing the test’s target of 20 million TPS. Over 10,000 Sui Tunnels were opened on Mainnet during the test. - This is not the raw throughput of Sui L1. Most interactions occur via Sui Tunnels—programmable state/payment channels operating off-chain. The blockchain is primarily used only for opening, closing, and settling tunnels, rather than recording every individual interaction on L1. => @EmanAbio described this approach as: “Think of Sui as a court.” Under this model, the blockchain serves as the trust, verification, and settlement layer, while high-frequency interactions occur off-chain. 2. AI Agents Featured Prominently Across Day 1 Announcements - Major partnerships announced by Alibaba Cloud × Sui and Google Cloud × Mysten Labs revealed a largely aligned strategy. - With Alibaba Cloud, AI agents can be pre-allocated budgets and policies to autonomously purchase cloud or AI resources within predefined limits. Instead of requiring human approval for each transaction, agents can autonomously execute certain economic activities based on pre-established permissions. - Conversely, as agents gain more autonomy, verification becomes critical. Mysten Labs and Google Cloud are developing the Verifiable Agent Arbiter (VAA) to create an evidence layer for agent activity. The goal is to enable verification of whether agents comply with policies without requiring full disclosure of prompts, model outputs, or tool calls. => Agents are becoming more automated, yet their operations still require verifiability and auditability (Certik was also mentioned as an audit partner). 3. Finance and AI Are Being Integrated Into a Unified Architecture - Day 1 also featured continued product developments in trading and DeFi. @tradeonhudi focused on social trading and perpetuals; Hashi aims to bring Bitcoin liquidity into DeFi; while Beep is advancing toward agentic finance. - A future architecture is emerging: humans grant permissions and budgets to agents; agents utilize compute, data, or financial services; high-frequency interactions occur off-chain; and the blockchain handles final settlement. => This context aligns with Adeniyi’s keynote, “The Machine Economy Won’t Wait.” Sui does not treat AI as a standalone narrative but is actively integrating AI agents with existing financial infrastructure and settlement layers. 4. Conclusion => The figure of 40.6 million TPS should not be interpreted as Sui L1 processing 40 million on-chain transactions per second. The true significance lies in demonstrating an architecture where massive volumes of interactions can occur off-chain, while the blockchain retains its role in trust and settlement. => This model becomes compelling if AI agents generate large-scale machine-to-machine transaction demand. In such a scenario, blockchain requirements will extend beyond user scale to include support for machine-scale interaction, verification, and settlement. Stay tuned for more updates on Day 2! @SuiNetwork @SuiNetwork_VN #SuiBasecamp #Token2049

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SUI ATTEMPTS TO BREAK TPS RECORD – WIN UP TO 16,000 $SUI FOR THE CLOSEST GUESS On October 7 at Sui Basecamp 2026, Sui will conduct a live performance test on the Main Stage with the goal of breaking its own TPS record. The previous record, set by Sui on July 4, was 6,086,766 TPS. This time, Kostas Chalkias, Co-Founder & Chief Cryptographer of Mysten Labs, will personally execute the test, while CertiK will serve as the independent verifier of the results. The exciting part? Sui is launching a TPS Prediction Campaign so the community can guess the final number. Total prize pool: 16,000 SUI 1st place: 10,000 SUI 2nd place: 5,000 SUI 3rd place: 1,000 SUI Each participant gets one guess only—the closest predictions to the actual TPS will win. This is one of the events I’m most looking forward to at Sui Basecamp 2026. With a record of 6.08 million TPS already achieved, the question now is: On October 7, how high will Sui push the TPS limit? I’ll be there in person at Basecamp to witness this test live. Drop your predictions below—let’s see who guesses closest! Join here 👇

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BLAST SHUTS DOWN — THE FAILURE OF THE WAVE FARMING AND FOMO LAYER 2 MODEL $BLAST announced the shutdown of its network on October 2 due to operational costs exceeding revenue and no viable path forward to sustain operations. - The project previously raised $20 million and attracted over $2 billion in deposits before mainnet, but current reported TVL has dwindled to approximately $32 million. 1. Outsourcing Yield, Adding Token Expectations to Attract Deposits - The original mechanism was straightforward: users deposited $ETH, which Blast staked via Lido to earn staking yields; stablecoins were deposited into MakerDAO, with the generated yields passed back to users. - Initial promotional rates were around 4% for ETH and 5% for stablecoins, with additional incentives in the form of points and anticipated airdrops to attract capital. Blast integrated existing yield sources into its Layer 2 experience, but deposit attraction still heavily relied on expected token value. 2. Over $2 Billion in TVL Failed to Retain Users - TVL dropped from over $2 billion to approximately $32 million — a reduction of more than 98%, or roughly 60-fold. - However, these were pre-mainnet bridge deposits, and TVL figures are not directly comparable; thus, this does not precisely reflect capital withdrawn from the network. - Overall, the massive outflow trend still indicates that the initial fundraising did not translate into a sustainable, actively used platform. 3. User Yields Did Not Cover Chain Operational Costs - Yields from Lido and MakerDAO were passed on to users, while Blast’s revenue model allocated net gas fees to applications. - The network still bore infrastructure and operational expenses, meaning high deposit volumes did not guarantee sufficient revenue to sustain operations. The shutdown announcement confirms the economic model is no longer viable, though no detailed financial breakdown has been provided to attribute costs to specific line items. => I assess Blast’s failure as stemming from its inability to convert yield- and airdrop-driven capital flows into durable usage sufficient to support the network. After the disappointing airdrop, Blast failed to create any compelling new incentives or experiences to re-engage users.