GALAXY RESEARCH: HAS BITCOIN FORMED A BOTTOM? IS THIS THE RIGHT TIME TO ACCUMULATE BTC? On October 26, Galaxy Research published a report titled “Why Now Is the Time to Add and Hold BTC,” authored by Alex Thorn, Chief Research Officer at Galaxy. - In the report, Galaxy presents a clear assessment: Bitcoin’s bear market may have ended in June 2026, and BTC is currently in an accumulation phase ahead of a new growth cycle. 1. Technical indicators support the possibility that BTC has formed a bottom - Bitcoin has closed above its 50-week moving average (MA50) for five consecutive weeks, after spending 44 weeks trading below it. - According to Galaxy, in all four historical instances where BTC reclaimed the MA50 after being below it for at least 20 weeks, prices rose within one year, with gains of 1,497%, 128%, 55%, and 142% respectively. => Additionally, the 200-week MA continued to act as support during the recent correction. Galaxy also notes that the June 2026 low aligns with the timing of previous halving cycle bottoms. However, the historical sample size is small and does not guarantee repetition. 2. Selling pressure from speculative institutional players has eased - CME data shows that net long positions among asset managers dropped from 43,300 BTC to 18,400 BTC—a 57% decline from BTC’s peak. Meanwhile, net short positions among leveraged funds fell from 71,400 BTC to 30,600 BTC. - This reflects a contraction in arbitrage strategies between spot ETFs and futures contracts, rather than a simple shift of capital into bearish bets on BTC. *Notably, 13F filings reveal that nine major institutions reduced their ETF holdings by approximately 68,000 BTC equivalent between Q3 2025 and Q2 2026. In contrast, all other reporting institutions collectively increased holdings by about 20,000 BTC. => According to Galaxy, most selling pressure originated from short-term capital and trading strategies, while long-term investor fundamentals remained relatively stable. Another signal: spot ETFs have accumulated an additional ~87,000 BTC since the June low, per Galaxy data. 3. Macroeconomic context reinforces the case for holding Bitcoin - Galaxy argues that Bitcoin’s long-term outlook is supported by mounting fiscal pressures in the U.S. The report notes U.S. public debt has reached approximately $40.44 trillion, with the FY2026 budget deficit nearing $2 trillion. Rising debt servicing costs are straining the ability to sustain prolonged monetary tightening. - Galaxy contends that the risk of fiat currency depreciation will continue to reinforce Bitcoin’s role as a scarce asset independent of government or institutional issuance. => This is Galaxy’s long-term investment thesis—it does not imply that BTC will always rise when inflation or public debt increases. 4. Market sentiment is shifting focus away from Bitcoin - Galaxy observes a recurring pattern seen during 2015–2016 and 2018–2019: financial markets are focused on blockchain technology but paying less attention to Bitcoin itself. => In 2026, institutional attention has increasingly turned toward stablecoins, tokenization, and AI. - However, circulating stablecoin supply has surged 129% since early 2024 to approximately $304 billion, while BTC remains significantly below its all-time high. => According to Galaxy, this suggests liquidity still exists within the crypto ecosystem—just not yet flowing back into Bitcoin. 5. Conclusion from @glxyresearch: Buy and Hold BTC - The report concludes that Bitcoin’s bottom has likely formed, selling pressure is weakening, and the current environment presents a compelling opportunity to accumulate and hold long-term. - They also note that $BTC has demonstrated its ability to trade above $125,000 and see no fundamental reason why it cannot return to that level. However, Galaxy provides no guarantees regarding timing or magnitude of future price movements. - What do you think?
