GLASSNODE: ETF CAPITAL OUTFLOW, LEVERAGE HAS NOT COOLED DOWN Glassnode’s Market Pulse report for Week 42, published on October 12 with data through October 11, noted a ~3% decline in $BTC for the week. Selling pressure increased in both ETFs and derivatives markets, while Open Interest remained nearly unchanged. 1. ETFs Shift to Net Outflows - U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $701.6 million, compared to net inflows of $117.9 million the prior week. Trading volume rose slightly from $11 billion to $11.3 billion, but higher volume does not equate to new buying capital. Net flows indicate that the ETF channel has shifted from supportive to a source of selling pressure this week. 2. Sellers Gain Momentum, Derivatives Positions Have Not Yet Contracted - Perpetual CVD turned from a positive $49.5 million to a negative $681.8 million, reflecting dominant active selling over active buying. During the same period, futures Open Interest remained around $36.7 billion, while long funding payments decreased by approximately 25.8%. Although prices adjusted, Open Interest has not significantly declined, so there is insufficient evidence to conclude that leverage has been meaningfully unwound. 3. Realized Cap Continues to Rise; Most Supply Remains Profitable - Monthly Realized Cap change increased from 1.1% to 1.2%, while the percentage of supply in profit decreased slightly from 74.5% to 71.4%. Realized Cap values coins based on their last movement price, so this increase does not reflect newly confirmed cash inflows. The data shows on-chain cost basis continues to rise, yet the majority of supply remains profitable and could generate additional profit-taking pressure. => In my view, this correction has not been accompanied by a clear contraction in derivatives positions. To assess recovery potential, we must monitor whether ETF outflows stabilize and whether active selling pressure subsides; Open Interest should be analyzed relative to BTC price movements to mitigate distortions from price volatility. => Personally, I lean toward the scenario where $BTC needs to re-accumulate or may further correct to retest lower price levels in the near term. — What are your thoughts?
