A lot of profiles on X are calling this a bull trap. Is it, though? This recent move in Bitcoin put in the biggest weekly candle on record by dollar amount. This could very well be a bull trap, but some of the things that have occurred recently haven't happened in a bear market dating back to 2015 During bear market periods the RSI has never crossed above 70 into overbought territory. At the same time, price has never closed above the 3rd standard deviation bands. That is 3 full cycles never having reached these levels during bear markets. This recent rally has had both the RSI cross above 70 and breach the 3rd standard deviation band, closing above it for 4 full days. That hasn't happened since the 27th of July 2020, just a few months before the parabolic phase of the 2020/2021 parabolic bull market. If this is in fact a bull trap, this would be the first bull trap of this strength since prior to 2015. With on-chain z-scores coming off of their lows and a move of this magnitude, it seems unlikely that this is a bull trap and that those waiting for sub-$50k, or even sub-$60k, may not get the entry they want. For risk management systems for stocks, gold and cryptocurrency, no-code strategy creation engines and an indicator suite of over 75 indicators, visit https://t.co/89tCJ7Uszo. #BullMarket #RSI #3Sigma #Crypto #Bitcoin bitcoin:native

Is this a bull trap? A lot of people are calling this a bull trap and pointing at on-chain indicators. But the z-score versions are the superior metrics to be watching. The reason the on-chain metrics are inferior is because the raw thresholds were calibrated on three completed cycles in a market that no longer exists. Look at drawdown amplitude: -93% (2011), -86% (2015), -84% (2018), -77% (2022), and -54% this time. It decays every cycle. As market cap, options depth and ETF plumbing grow, realised volatility falls. A fixed threshold doesn't move with it, so it becomes progressively unreachable. Not because conditions aren't extreme, but because the ruler was cut for a different market. This is known as alpha decay. Whereas a z-score divides by the standard deviation, which is exactly the thing that's been shrinking. It asks, "How unusual is this for the current regime?" instead of "Did we cross a line drawn in 2015 on a sample of three?" Z-scores are superior because they are regime-adaptive rather than history-anchored and dimensionless, so you can actually average a ratio, a proportion and a multiple into one composite. A mean-reversion metric can't distinguish oversold from repriced. If this is a structural derating rather than a cyclical washout, the z-score keeps telling you it's cheap against a mean that is falling itself. While we haven't had a bottom signal from MVRV, SOPR, NUPL and the Pi-Cycle indicators, that doesn't mean we haven't reached the bottom. If we look at the z-score versions, we have had a bottom indication on almost all of them. Any single signal is noise. A number of signals across independent metrics are not. For access to a suite of over 75 indicators, visit https://t.co/89tCJ7V0oW. #BullTrap #OnChain #Zscore #BitcoinScam bitcoin:native

The Crowding Model shows the vast majority in the Overbought: Chasing Highs quadrant. The model maps two inputs. RSI measures price extension. A z-score of fund flows measures whether current flow is unusual relative to that asset's own history. Overbought: Chasing Highs — inflows, positive momentum. Overbought: Selling Already — positive momentum, outflows beginning. Oversold: Puking Lows — outflows, decreasing momentum. Oversold: Buying Already — decreased momentum, inflows beginning. What the current reading means: Both axes are elevated across the board. Momentum is high, and money is still arriving into assets that have already moved. The marginal buyer is largely committed, meaning the people most likely to buy have already bought. What to watch out for: A move into the Selling Already quadrant. This would mean price is holding while the flows turn negative. The RSI rolling over with flows still positive and momentum narrowing to fewer assets. For access to tools like this, visit: https://t.co/89tCJ7Uszo. #CrowdingModel #Tradingview #Crypto #Bitcoin

The debasement trade is back on. On August 19 the Treasury announced it would at least double the size of its liquidity support buyback operations, taking the maximum from $2bn to at least $4bn. Bessent then told CNBC the operations could run larger than $4bn. The part that matters came this week. Senior Treasury officials confirmed that the Treasury General Account, with over $900bn, is available to fund the purchases. Funding buybacks with bill issuance is a maturity swap. Drawing down the TGA is not. This puts cash back into the system while the Treasury buys the long end. Markets have reacted to this accordingly, with gold up above $4,600 and Bitcoin up around $80k. Our systems were positioned for it. Our gold system exited in March, re-entered 5% lower, and is now up over 5% on the position. Our Bitcoin system also caught the move off the lows. Up over 15%. No forecasting required. The systems follow price, not narrative. If you were sidelined for this and need help managing risk, head over to https://t.co/89tCJ7V0oW. #DebasementTrade #InflationHedge #Gold #Bitcoin ethereum:0x68749665ff8d2d112fa859aa293f07a622782f38 bitcoin:native

Will Bitcoin finish the bull market above $360k in Q3 2027? It's possible. Dating back to 2018, Bitcoin has had 22 positive 3-sigma (standard deviation) volume events, not including the recent one on August 19. Of those events, 15 were in bull market periods and 7 during bear market periods. A positive 3 sigma volume event ignited each bull market, and price never dropped below the open of that candle again. Multiple positive 3 sigma volume events also occurred throughout the bull market periods. In bear market periods, the average duration it took for price to drop below the opening price of that candle was 35 days, with a median of 43 days. The average percent drop of the close below that candle's open was 13%, with a median of 12%. During bull market periods, the average run from the events marking the ignition of the bull market was 409 days, with a median of 336 days. The average percent gain from that candle's close to the peak was 497%, with a median gain of 425%. If it is in fact a bear market, there is the possibility that Bitcoin ends up around $56k before the end of September. But, if this recent one marked the ignition of the bull market, we can expect to never see Bitcoin trade below $64,700 again. And if this bull market continues on to do between 425% and 497%, we can expect Bitcoin to end between 360k and 415k in Q3 2027. So the question is, is this a bull market or a bear market? #Crypto #Bitcoin #3Sigma #Volume bitcoin:native

OI (Open Interest) has risen slightly since yesterday as funding rates have risen to their highest reading since the 5th of October 2025, just before the peak of the market. Spot volume has dropped off, which is typical of weekends, and the Coinbase Premium Index has turned positive. This suggests that leveraged longs have started to open positions, and we can see that reflected in the liquidation maps. The 1D liquidation heatmaps show a dense cluster above price around $78k, with a slightly denser cluster below around $76k. More longs have continued to open up since the recent $76,400 low. Many are still opening short positions, but of the positions that are opening, they are predominantly longs. The 3D heatmaps reflect this, with many more longs distributed down to sub-$70k, with the densest cluster around $74k. We may see some volatility and consolidation around this area as price moves through some of these liquidations. The higher timeframe heatmaps, however, still show little to no longs building below price from the 1M up to the 1Y heatmaps. #OI #Funding #Liquidations bitcoin:native

ETFs pulled in almost $2 billion this week. Bitcoin ETF inflows recorded over $1.9B this week. Five sessions, not a single outflow day, and the biggest week since the October 2025 top. Ether funds added another $700m on top of that. The part that matters is where the bid came from. October was a leverage-led top, and it got flushed. Perps unwound, open interest reset, and price ground all the way down to just below $58k. Now, leverage has been flushed, sellers are exhausted, and spot-driven demand has returned. A deleveraged base and a spot-led bid means a healthier market structure. #Crypto #Bitcoin #ETF #Spot bitcoin:native

When the RSI hits 85 Twelve times since 2015, the RSI has pushed through 85 mid-trend. Every one of them landed inside a bull market, or right at the start of one. From the moment it crossed, the trend ran another 30 days on average before the RSI fell back under 50. The median was 20, which is shorter and tells you a handful of long runs are pulling the average up. The longest went 81 days, and the shortest still gave you 13. Twice, the RSI came back to 85 a second time before the trend was done. Loosen the threshold by a single point, and the picture holds. At 84, the mean stretches to 35 days and the median to 24. An RSI of 85 may not be a top signal. Historically it's been a sign the trend still had weeks left in it. If we extrapolate the recent RSI reading of 85 forward and apply the historical mean and median to that, the trend has room to run through to mid-September. If we do that with the 84 threshold, the longer mean and median push that out to late September. No two trends run the same way. But the pattern across all twelve is consistent enough to be worth taking seriously. An RSI of 85 has not marked a top. It has marked a trend with time left on it, and in several cases, one that was only getting started. This may well be the beginning of the next run. #Crypto #Bitcoin #Trend #RSI bitcoin:native

There's a lot going on right now, so this will be a 2-part post today. Open interest (OI) has continued to decline, and funding rates have continued to rise. At the same time, spot volume has continued to rise, and the Coinbase Premium Index is almost turning positive. This suggests that this rally has moved from an unhealthy leveraged-driven rally to a healthy demand-driven one. The 1D liquidation heatmaps show that the majority of shorts above price have been cleared, and there are a number of longs below price, with a dense cluster around $74k. Still a few thousand dollars below price. The 1W maps show a similar setup. The shorts have predominantly been cleared, yet we don't have the dense clustering of longs below price and instead see them relatively distributed over a much larger area down to around $65k before we see the denser clusters. Moving out to the 1M heatmaps, we can see a small cluster still above price and virtually none till down to around $62k. This suggests that while we may have some downside in the near term, there does not seem to be enough short positions to provide a sustained short squeeze. And the higher timeframe maps are showing something completely different. Check out the next post dropping soon. #OI #Funding #Liquidations bitcoin:native

I was asked, what's my read on this current rally? My Answer: Seeing as this started following the announcement that the treasury is going to more than double their long-dated bond buybacks, I'd say the market has realized that liquidity is coming. That was the ignition. Short liquidations had been growing, especially after a few months of negative funding from February through to May and people expecting Bitcoin to move down below $50k. That's the fuel. At the same time, sellers are exhausted. Bitcoin has been chopping around in the $60k zone for 2 to 3 months, and whoever was going to sell has likely sold already. And that means nothing to put out this fire. The announcement started it, the shorts fuelled it, and there were very few sellers to stop it. #Crypto #Bitcoin #BondBuyback #Liquidations #SellerExhaustion bitcoin:native