Is this a bull trap? A lot of people are calling this a bull trap and pointing at on-chain indicators. But the z-score versions are the superior metrics to be watching. The reason the on-chain metrics are inferior is because the raw thresholds were calibrated on three completed cycles in a market that no longer exists. Look at drawdown amplitude: -93% (2011), -86% (2015), -84% (2018), -77% (2022), and -54% this time. It decays every cycle. As market cap, options depth and ETF plumbing grow, realised volatility falls. A fixed threshold doesn't move with it, so it becomes progressively unreachable. Not because conditions aren't extreme, but because the ruler was cut for a different market. This is known as alpha decay. Whereas a z-score divides by the standard deviation, which is exactly the thing that's been shrinking. It asks, "How unusual is this for the current regime?" instead of "Did we cross a line drawn in 2015 on a sample of three?" Z-scores are superior because they are regime-adaptive rather than history-anchored and dimensionless, so you can actually average a ratio, a proportion and a multiple into one composite. A mean-reversion metric can't distinguish oversold from repriced. If this is a structural derating rather than a cyclical washout, the z-score keeps telling you it's cheap against a mean that is falling itself. While we haven't had a bottom signal from MVRV, SOPR, NUPL and the Pi-Cycle indicators, that doesn't mean we haven't reached the bottom. If we look at the z-score versions, we have had a bottom indication on almost all of them. Any single signal is noise. A number of signals across independent metrics are not. For access to a suite of over 75 indicators, visit https://t.co/89tCJ7V0oW. #BullTrap #OnChain #Zscore #BitcoinScam bitcoin:native