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D2 Finance

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Global Macro Epoch 1 conclusion + new epoch ✅ 📊 +6% net, after paying more than 10% in funding. Gross on the book: north of +16%. GM trades the directional signals from HYPE++ outright, one hard rule: 10% loss limit per epoch. Epoch 1 ran $100K as a test. Apart from the momentum signals, nothing was optimized. Volatile by mandate: ◼ Gains came early on Korea flow, same as Kimchi. Peak around +17-18% in early September ◼ Then stopped out roughly 10 times in a row. Back to slightly negative, inside the 10% limit ◼ Rebuilt the P&L in October when the opportunity got interesting again ------ The dark side Our other strategies run trades of 2 to 60 days, where execution and net funding wash out. HYPE++ usually receives funding on @HyperliquidX. GM plays the 30-minute to 72-hour frame at higher leverage, and funding ate more than half of the edge. What changes: the next short epoch stays the same. Later iterations add Pendle Boros, the funding-rate market, which benefits from exactly what hurt GM here. Boros liquidity is still too small for scarce PM time on its own. ------ 📅 Global Macro next epoch • Deposits: open now • Trading starts: Nov 5 • Epoch ends: Nov 20 • Cap: 100,000 USDG Two weeks, plus up to 30 days of tactical. After the short epoch we will most likely split the GM signal in two: GM 2.0, and Overnight Edge, whose goal is to beat $SPX on a risk-adjusted basis by taking advantage of 24/7 markets. We stay liquid. Fade D2 at your own risk.

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Looking forward to seeing what @edward_yu_var and the team build with Variational Pro, and whether it gains real traction. Not a big fan of anonymous RFQ setups in general. However, if it meaningfully reduces the multi-broker onboarding and documentation friction (we are currently deep in that paperwork with several counterparties), it becomes interesting for institutional flow. Side note: we previously suggested @HyperliquidX implement a native RFQ layer for similar reasons. Solid discourse either way. We need more people competing for the longest standing on-chain hedge fund.

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Two years. Billions in notional. Zero ADL on our book through 10 Oct. (@chameleon_jeff’s numbers attached 📊) Ranking is profit × leverage. 2x sits behind every 20x. ADL is a leverage decision, not a venue feature. 👇 https://t.co/C8iGX4RVDd

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We were there day one of @tradexyz. We traded it that first week and have not stopped since. Texas Hedge Epoch 2 ran NVDA vs QQQ, the SPCX pre-IPO listing trade and DRAM on xyz and settled +31.7% net. Hot7 runs its US equity delta on xyz perps against an SPX hedge. Texas Epoch 4 is building the Anthropic listing trade on xyz:ANT right now. All of it sits on the same collateral as our BTC and HYPE book, which is the cross-margin point in the post, live for a fund today. We have run the first multi-strategy hedge fund on Hyperliquid since before the HYPE TGE on one thesis: it is the house of all finance. Today the owner of the NYSE agreed, subject to approvals. Congrats @sershokunin and the xyz team.

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@jason @GrantCardone we ran both of your calls through the options market. Grant, you are betting $1M that bitcoin trades 126k before Oct 2028. That is 58% above here. Two year options price that at 42%. For it to be 50/50 bitcoin vol needs to be 62. It is trading 46. Jason, you are saying we test 57k in the next 12 months. That is 28% below here. One year options price that at 48%. A coin flip, not a lock. So the market has Grant at 42 and Jason at 48. Neither of you is as right as you sound. We will make a price in either. Size?

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AI capex funding trade imploding? From the D2 desk. @Second_Lane is offering OpenAI equity in 20M+ blocks. That is how a trillion++ private valuation discovers a clearing price. @JensenHuang on Thursday: neocloud demand is "off the charts" and "they just need working capital." Every borrower says that right before the lender becomes the equity. CoreWeave CDS has traded above 1,140bp. ELI5 👇 One company sells the shovels. Its customers borrowed to buy them and some now pay ~15.7% on the money. So the shovel company co-signed up to $100 billion of residual-value guarantees, bought ~$99bn of their equity, and committed to ~$279bn of supply. Customers got marked down. The shovel company's options still price a normal quarter. 🤔 1. PRICED. Neocloud credit CoreWeave 2031s around 80 cents, ~15.7% yield. Market-implied default odds inside a year sit in the high single digits. ~$51.6bn of debt and leases, heavy maturities 2030–2032, cash flow still far short of the stack. 2. PRICED. Oracle 2036s ~320+ bp over Treasuries. S&P cut to BBB- in July (one notch from junk) against a massive backlog. Free cash flow deeply negative last quarter. 3. PRICED. Supply Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle have issued tens of billions of IG bonds this year, a double-digit share of the overall IG market. The IG complex is functioning as a GPU layaway plan. 4. PRICED. SPV and private credit Meta's Hyperion bond (off-balance-sheet) has traded down to the low 90s from above 110. Blue Owl has capped redemptions after large withdrawal requests. In DeFi that is a withdrawal queue; in private credit it is called a liquidity feature cc @matt_levine. 5. PRICED. Big-tech equity Alphabet well off its highs after a negative free-cash-flow quarter. Meta sold off on elevated capex and negative cash flow. SoftBank (material OpenAI holder) CDS above 400bp. 6. NOT PRICED. NVDA's hidden book 👀 The 10-Q shows a $100B residual-value guarantee cap on the SB Energy / OpenAI Ohio campus, capacity-purchase commitments on unsold neocloud inventory, ~$99bn of equity in customers, and ~$279bn of supply commitments (mostly memory). Options price roughly a 5% move at ~42 vol. One of those two numbers has not read the other. 7. NOT PRICED. Microsoft Microsoft is ~22% of NVDA revenue; NVDA is a dominant share of Microsoft's capex. Any hedges, @satyanadella? 8. NOT PRICED. 2027 spend Street still models Alphabet and Amazon spending materially more in 2027 than this year. Earnings next week will test it. 9. NOT PRICED. Off-balance-sheet treatment. The market is treating Hyperion as Meta risk. Ratings agencies still carry the parent at A+. We will see how long that lasts. 10. NOT PRICED. Policy path post-election. Any "silver bullet" stimulus or industrial policy that keeps the capex train running is not in the likely @realDonaldTrump options in case of a Dem sweep. TL;DR Borrowers have repriced: CoreWeave ~15.7%, Hyperion in the 90s, Alphabet meaningfully off the highs. The lender has not: $NVDA 👀 Key dates: 28 and 29 October guides, 4 November buyback window ends, 19 November NVDA earnings. Texas is watching you, Jensen.

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We decoded the @initia exploit. One signed tx at 14:59:26 UTC minted 2,000,000 AUSD out of nothing. 153 seconds later a valid @LayerZero_Core message released 1.4M real AUSD from the Ethereum adapter. $2.65M was back on Ethereum within 7m21s of the mint. Three exits, all into 0xDD92…edFA: AUSD: 1.4M from the AUSD OFT adapter, 71% of its balance, 576K left. ETH: 105 from the native-ETH OFT adapter, 96% of its balance, 4.84 left. USDC: 1.08M as fresh mints from 0x0, via Circle's CCTP. The mint was the attacker's own key calling one Move function, 135,888 gas, no bridge message involved. The token is an argument (recipient, token, amount), consistent with one wallet printing AUSD, USDC and ETH. LayerZero's DVNs then attested to burns that really happened, and an OFT adapter cannot check whether burned tokens were ever backed: each Ethereum lockbox pays at par for any Initia-side mint bug. Prep started 6.5 hours before the mint: 0.1 ETH from Tornado at 08:27 UTC, dust sends through @axelar AxelarHandler from 13:14, and a 0.006 ETH deposit at 14:37 into the same ETH adapter it emptied 29 minutes later. Every stable was ETH within 3 minutes of landing via 1inch and 0x, AUSD in 84 seconds. All 1,135.52 ETH (~$2.73M) now sits in a fresh wallet, 0x358e…CAC8. Same shape as Liquid on 6 Sep, where an Elements bug created 4,000 L-BTC and a valid peg-out paid 3,996 real BTC. Initia's DEX holds $3.50M of TVL and did $334K of volume in 24h. Its bridges carried 8x that for one wallet in 7m21s: on Initia, the deepest pool was the bridge.

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hXXI Epoch conclusion + new epoch ✅ 📊 +1.8% net in BTC over 25 days Vault Ratio back at its pre-August high. One 85,000 call written on @flowdesk_co expired out of the money at 82,111. Premium kept. Implied stayed bid into the macro calendar while realized decayed: whoever was blown out of gamma in August was not there to be blown out again. We close two weeks early: implied and realized both collapsed this week and the opportunity set moved. Into the midterms the trade is TradFi vs crypto relative value, where HYPE++, Texas Hedge and Hot7 live, not the Bitcoin surface. BlackRock's PBIT (long IBIT, long put spread, short call) is hXXI's trade in an ETF wrapper. If retirement money piles in, the surface gets a permanent call seller and the premium moves into the spread between BTC and SPX skew. Our HYPE++ already trades that swap and borrows BTC to run it. Next epoch hXXI is the lender ------ 📅 New hXXI epoch --> Deposits: open now --> Trading Starts: Oct 27 --> Epoch ends: January 15, 2027 --> Fees: zero --> Cap: 25 BTC Terms: 3% fixed in BTC + up to 3% kicker if HYPE++ closes above 15% annualized The fixed leg does not depend on how HYPE++ does. The kicker does. One surface trade is binary. HYPE++ runs an ensemble. TradFi is more "fun" than crypto right now. Fade D2 at your own risk.

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The credibly neutral ledger Joe describes has a name. Hyperliquid clears BTC, the Nasdaq 100, SK Hynix (Seoul share and ADS), oil and SpaceX pre-IPO on one margin account, 24/7, and $648M of it went through one of our accounts. The SK Hynix bet he calls hypothetical was about a third of all @tradexyz HIP-3 volume in July, the largest stock perp on the venue. Listing is permissionless: stake 500K HYPE, deploy, fees flow to the $HYPE cleaner than a dividend. We have traded there every day since before the token existed, first HYPE fill at $2. Our call: non-crypto markets exceed half of @HyperliquidX volume in every month of 2027. @chameleon_jeff wears the suit so the conference crowd sends us more.

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HOT7 Vault is live. 🔥 They tokenized the stocks. We tokenized the strategy. 7 strongest US stocks at 1.3x, re-ranked monthly by a rule. Call-spread overwrite funds an SPX cushion. One tokenized vault, one USDC deposit. But not yet. Epoch 1 gets paid to wait: → Long @coinbase tokenized stocks on @aave, earning the @base incentives → Short the same names on @HyperliquidX HIP-3, earning funding. Delta flat → Mandate stays on the farm until a momentum signal is worth taking Epoch 1 Details ◼ Trading Starts: Oct 20 ◼ Epoch End: Nov 20 ◼ Cap: 1,000,000 USDC ◼ Chain: Base ◼ Fees: 0% mgmt | 0% performance