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<p>@jason @GrantCardone we ran both of your calls through the options market.

Grant, you are betting $1M that bitcoin trades 126k before Oct 2028. That is 58% above here. Two year options price that at 42%. For it to be 50/50 bitcoin vol needs to be 62. It is trading 46.

Jason, you are saying we test 57k in the next 12 months. That is 28% below here. One year options price that at 48%. A coin flip, not a lock.

So the market has Grant at 42 and Jason at 48. Neither of you is as right as you sound.

We will make a price in either. Size?</p>

@jason @GrantCardone we ran both of your calls through the options market.
Grant, you are betting $1M that bitcoin trades 126k before Oct 2028. That is 58% above here. Two year options price that at 42%. For it to be 50/50 bitcoin vol needs to be 62. It is trading 46.
Jason, you are saying we test 57k in the next 12 months. That is 28% below here. One year options price that at 48%. A coin flip, not a lock.
So the market has Grant at 42 and Jason at 48. Neither of you is as right as you sound.
W

@jason @GrantCardone we ran both of your calls through the options market. Grant, you are betting $1M that bitcoin trades 126k before Oct 2028. That is 58% above here. Two year options price that at 42%. For it to be 50/50 bitcoin vol needs to be 62. It is trading 46. Jason, you are saying we test 57k in the next 12 months. That is 28% below here. One year options price that at 48%. A coin flip, not a lock. So the market has Grant at 42 and Jason at 48. Neither of you is as right as you sound. We will make a price in either. Size?

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