Core CPI is out of control... It’s not just the headline 0.3%—when calculated, it’s even hotter at 0.335%. Both core goods and core services are accelerating together, showing broad-based increases. Used cars up +0.7%, clothing up +0.3%—both rising, driven by tariffs and higher vehicle prices. This can’t be dismissed as a one- or two-month anomaly anymore. The Fed likely can’t ignore this... The probability of a rate hike in October has instantly jumped to 30%.
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