The concentration of筹码 at Melbourne University has once again approached 15% (Figure 1). Last time it reached around 15%, it remained range-bound for another 11 days. Let’s examine the specific distribution of筹码: From mid-August, just before this rally began (when the previous concentration hit 15%), through mid-September, approximately 720,000 coins were moved out of the 60,000 original position—most of this turnover occurred within the 10 days following the surge past 70,000 in August (likely short-term traders taking profits) (Figure 2). In this second wave, from mid-September to now, the 60,000 position has only decreased by 180,000 coins. The main turnover has been among those who bought between 76,000 and 80,000 in September, now shifting their positions to the 82,000–88,000 range (Figure 3). Overall, in this current wave, the original 60,000 base position has held firm and hasn’t sold much. Older trapped holders above 88,000 have sold a small portion here, and short-term traders who bought around 70,000 have also sold here. All are converging toward the center—that’s why the concentration has once again reached 15%. ------------ High筹码 concentration typically implies larger future volatility—but the direction remains uncertain. However, a breakout is likely to occur within these final two weeks of October. Starting October 21, major U.S. tech giants begin reporting earnings: (Oct 21: Meta, TSLA | Oct 28: GOOGL, MSFT | Oct 29: MSTR, AMZN, COIN | Nov 2: AAPL) Simultaneously, on October 28: FOMC meeting; on October 29: PCE and GDP data. October is currently priced with a high probability of no rate hike—market expectations have dropped from nearly 40% after CPI to under 15%. The key focus at the October FOMC will be the Fed’s tone regarding December (currently priced at a 74% probability) and whether liquidity conditions improve after the meeting. -------------- Current data is contradictory: Short-term: No new ETF inflows—$450 million has flowed out over the past seven days. Macro headwinds persist—10-year Treasury yields remain above 5%. Price is hovering near the lower edge of October’s range—at around 84,000, many buyers are trapped. But medium-to-long-term: The overall trend remains intact—price still trades above short-term holders’ average cost (currently around 74,000). The original 60,000 base position has held steady during this October rally—no additional bottom-layer selling pressure. -------------- So right now, it’s impossible to determine which direction the market will take. Any change in conditions could trigger a move. Downside scenario: FOMC turns hawkish in October—December rate hike probability surges above 90% + weak earnings drag stocks lower + continued ETF outflows. Possible outcomes: Daily close below 84,000—breaks above the current range and retests September’s lower range—short-term trend weakens. Break below 76,000–74,000 (September low + short-term holder cost)—all short-term traders turn unprofitable; on-chain data often treats this as the short-term bull/bear divide. ------------ Upside scenario: FOMC is neutral to dovish—December probability drops below 50% + earnings support equities + ETFs resume sustained net inflows + macro liquidity improves. Possible outcomes: Reclaims 84,500—short-term trend turns bullish (bull/bear divide within October range). Breaks above 87,000 (October high)—confirms upward momentum; next targets: 90,000 → then 95,000. ------------ If neither scenario materializes, the market will continue consolidating until the next catalyst emerges.