This could be the second signal point of the Seller Exhaustion Index. On August 11 of this year, the BTC Seller Exhaustion Index provided us with the final precise bottoming signal before the market rally. It simultaneously measures low volatility and high losses; a signal is triggered when both conditions are met. Historically, the Seller Exhaustion Index only enters the “extreme exhaustion zone” (red area) during cycle bottoms. Once the bottom structure is broken, it becomes extremely difficult to reappear—even if prices fall further, the index does not reach lower levels (labeled 1 and 2 in the chart). Therefore, in a single cycle, if you missed the “lowest point 1,” you should strive to capture the “second-lowest point 2.” As I wrote in my tweet on August 11 this year: “The certainty of point 2 is higher than point 1; however, the risk is that point 2’s price may also be higher than point 1.” Now, “point 2” has appeared! Just a few days ago, when BTC price retraced to $77,000, the Seller Exhaustion Index formed the second-lowest point of this cycle (only higher than the August reading this year). Of course, I don’t know what will happen in the coming weeks or months—but this is where we stand today. So here’s the question: Will you bet that another lower signal point 2 is still coming, or will you believe this is truly “point 2” of this cycle? Unfortunately, I cannot give you a definitive recommendation or answer. Because when point 1 appeared, I chose to believe unconditionally—so now… I no longer need to choose. It’s your time to shine, bro! 🔥

The chip accumulation zone of $61k–$65k significantly decreased by 210,000 BTC this week, shifting to the $80k–$85k range—low-to-high rotation. Isn’t this a massive profit-taking event? But in reality, it isn’t. Xiao Bei believes “this BTC turnover is not a normal economic behavior”—a judgment that is both highly experienced and precisely accurate. Let’s examine two sets of data: When low-price chips move to higher prices, they inevitably leave behind massive realized profits on-chain. Indeed, on October 22, the STH-SOPR (Short-Term Holder Spent Profit Ratio) spiked dramatically. However, the STH realized profit after entity adjustment—excluding internal transfers within the same entity—showed no reaction whatsoever. This proves that the movement of these chips is most likely an internal position reallocation by an institution, not genuine selling—no cause for concern. ---------------------------------------------- Xiao Bei @market_beggar is an exceptional blogger in the Chinese-speaking X community. I’ve witnessed him grow from a few hundred followers to his current status through relentless effort and dedication. His tweets are sharply insightful and highly professional, adopting a “teaching-oriented + systematic” style rather than speculative calls or emotional outbursts. Particularly distinctive is his approach to interpreting market movements through concepts like Liquidity and Stop Hunt—unique, practical, and grounded in real-world trading. If you’re a newcomer to the space and wish to avoid excessive noise, he is the second blogger I highly recommend you follow. ---------------------------------------------- Finally, a quick preview: Tomorrow, I’ll publish a brand-new post on chip structure, exploring the “depth of this cycle’s correction theory” from a fresh perspective. Stay tuned if you’re interested.

Yesterday’s pullback appears to have been a targeted sell-off by some pre-deposited coins on exchanges, taking advantage of low weekend liquidity to pressure the market. However, on-chain data shows no corresponding sentiment shift. Realized losses among holders have not increased—they’ve actually decreased. A key factor here is the timing: it occurred over the weekend. Institutional players like market makers and hedge funds typically adjust their positions only during weekday trading hours, starting Monday. Thus, yesterday’s move can simply be understood as an “exchange-driven dump.” Whether this was intended to trigger liquidations or serve another purpose, we won’t speculate on conspiracies. But since October 14, open interest (OI) in perpetual contracts has been steadily accumulating, with each pullback failing to reduce positions—and yesterday’s drop also failed to achieve meaningful deleveraging. Currently, new positions have opened on both the long and short sides. A significant volatility move is likely ahead; it just depends on which side gets triggered first.

I know many folks aren’t fond of ETH, given its epic underperformance in the last cycle that’s hard to forget. But... Objectively speaking, ETH has had periods where it outperformed BTC. For instance, in the two periods I’ve marked as 1 and 2 on the chart, the ETH/BTC exchange rate rose by 13.3% and 31.8% respectively after the indicators signaled a trend. Now, it looks like “3” might be about to arrive... https://t.co/76Xu0HrSEa

Spring is coming soon...... By summing up daily BTC transfers between different entities, valued in USD, and excluding transfers between addresses within the same entity, the remaining amount represents economically meaningful settlement volume. Comparing the 30-day moving average (red line) with the 365-day moving average (green line): When the red line is below the green line, it indicates low on-chain activity, subdued sentiment, and a market in contraction or dormancy—typically a characteristic of a bear market. When the red line is above the green line, it signals a resurgence in on-chain activity; even if sentiment has not fully recovered, entity-level fund movements have entered a trend reversal phase. As the market approaches an expansion phase, the bottom light blue bar turns to 1. As we see now, the coldest winter has passed, and everything is quietly coming back to life...

February 2026: Interest rate cuts paused; Wash nominated to succeed Powell—long regarded as an inflation hawk—sparking market fears of aggressive balance sheet reduction; BTC falls... May 2026: Energy prices drive inflation higher, global bond markets sell off, ETFs record record outflows starting mid-May, MicroStrategy begins selling BTC; BTC falls... In fact, which of these declines lacked negative catalysts? The last time the entire market was panicked over MicroStrategy’s potential collapse or a quantum attack was precisely when BTC was most undervalued in this cycle. In other words, only when there are negative factors and divergent opinions can BTC become truly “cheaper”; if everyone is in full consensus, where would there be any opportunity left for retail investors? Short-term volatility does not alter the long-term trend. Over the past decade, BTC has consistently overcome every challenge.

This year’s “Xiao Ni’s Lobster Feast” during Token 2049 Week was likely one of the most vibrant events in the Chinese-speaking crypto community. Over 400 attendees showed up, consuming more than a hundred kilograms of chilled lobster at 88 SGD per serving—generating a massive wave of mentions for the event’s sponsor, @NeoSoulAI, on X. What is NeoSoul? It’s not just about building an AI trading bot. It aims to enable AI agents not only to analyze and execute trades, but also to accumulate experience, correct mistakes, and continuously improve based on real economic activity. For example: if an agent predicts BTC will rise on October 1st, and that prediction is validated on October 10th, a conventional system might simply record: “Prediction was correct.” But NeoSoul seeks to go further—recording: What information did the agent observe on October 1st? What was the liquidity and market context at the time? What was the predicted probability? What evidence was it based on? Under what conditions would the judgment fail? By saving timestamped snapshots of data and ranking supporting evidence, NeoSoul prevents the common research error of using hindsight—interpreting past correct predictions with information only known afterward. This is especially critical for financial AI. Currently, I’ve observed the following data for NeoSoul: Scale: Approximately 4.75 million on-chain agents have been created, covering over 4.56 million wallet addresses, with more than 24.28 million cumulative interactions. Activity: In the past 30 days, 227,400 active wallets generated 1.41 million interactions on BNB Chain—accounting for 35.6% of the chain’s total historical interactions. Commercialization: NeoTrade has been downloaded 493,300 times, with 32,600 paid wallets and $418,600 in total on-chain deposits. According to official disclosures, enterprise and subscription ARR stand at $4.78 million and $1.08 million respectively. The greatest future value of AI agents lies in continuous accumulation—making each subsequent judgment more reliable than the last. But how powerful this data flywheel truly is will ultimately be proven by long-term real-world performance. A lobster feast may make a project memorable—but what determines how far it will go is its product, its users, and its sustained ability to create value.

Who is panicking, and who is holding strong? The data provides the answer. Short-term holders (STHs) transferred an average of 2,200 BTC per hour over the past four hours, forming a long spike significantly higher than other periods. This peak is the fourth highest since the market rally began in August, with the previous two peaks occurring during upward moves, while the ones on October 8 and 15 happened during declines. But yesterday’s level was already lower than on the 8th—that’s crucial! The most immediate task in the short term is to squeeze out all remaining “wavering holders.” Those who truly acquired their positions at the bottom would never consider “giving up” or “running away” here. Now, look at long-term holders (LTHs): their behavior yesterday was entirely different—only 480 BTC per hour, on average, were transferred to exchanges over the same four-hour window, just one-fifth of STH volume. This shows LTHs are completely unfazed by this decline, despite macro-level bearish sentiment. Of course, we did see a large influx of LTH transfers on October 8, peaking at 3,700 BTC/hour. Some speculate this was due to recent hardware wallet issues causing some BTC long-held in wallets to be temporarily moved to exchanges. That possibility can’t be ruled out. But since both LTHs and STHs surged transfers simultaneously on that day—and BTC prices dropped sharply—it indicates real selling pressure, not just precautionary moves. In summary: LTHs remained steady; the primary transfers to exchanges during this decline came from STHs—but even that has clearly weakened compared to last time. This reflects the true strength and stability of BTC’s current participant structure. “Confidence” isn’t shouted—it’s proven through action. Who’s nervous, who’s trying to escape? The data makes it clear.

Selling pressure from panic-driven holders is gradually being forced out. More accurately, this isn’t yet true “panic selling,” but rather a portion of short-term price-sensitive holders choosing to exit at a loss—what we might call “wavering positions.” The numbers 1, 2, and 3 on the chart correspond to the three price drops on October 9, 12, and 15, respectively, each reaching similar price levels and triggering realized losses (on an entity-level basis). Their relative relationship is as follows: 2 is smaller than 1; 3 is larger than 2 but still smaller than 1 (in my analytical framework, relative values matter far more than absolute ones). This indicates that the October 9 decline was the peak moment for this group of wavering holders to exit—so far, the largest such wave. On October 12, when prices approached $80K again, sentiment was more hesitant, and fewer sold. Yesterday marked the third wave: combined with disappointing inflation data and renewed expectations of rate hikes, U.S. equities plunged sharply—these cumulative negative catalysts forced wavering holders out once again. But this time, the volume was smaller than during the first wave. Will there be more? I believe there likely still is. After all, the current percentage of STH holders in loss stands at only 31%, compared to a historical average of 42.7%—meaning the sell-off hasn’t yet been “hard” enough. We can observe for another two days, but one thing is certain: when realized losses begin to narrow, it signals that the阶段性 correction is drawing closer to its bottom.

You may have only two months to decide. The red line in the chart represents the STH-RP (Short-Term Holder Cost Line), and the green line represents the TMMP (True Market Mean Price). When the red line is above the green line, it signals a bull market; conversely, when the red line is below the green line, it signals a bear market. Currently, the STH-RP is around $74,500, and the BTC price is above it. This means any asset turnover at this level will push the average cost higher, as the STH-RP is slowly but steadily climbing upward. Unless the BTC price falls below the STH-RP, the upward trend of the cost average will not change. Over the past month, the STH-RP has grown by 4.6%, while the TMMP is around $77,500. This means that, at the current pace, the STH-RP will surpass the TMMP in 30 days. If we account for a period of price consolidation and slower asset turnover, you may reasonably extend this timeline to two months. In summary, for those still unsure whether this is a bull or bear market—or those with extreme price sensitivity who haven’t yet mustered the courage to enter— the market has still granted you one to two months to carefully consider your decision (unless another black swan event occurs). Use this window wisely—opportunity won’t wait. The next time the STH-RP surpasses the TMMP may be over 1,000 days away.