
Yesterday’s pullback appears to have been a targeted sell-off by some pre-deposited coins on exchanges, taking advantage of low weekend liquidity to pressure the market. However, on-chain data shows no corresponding sentiment shift. Realized losses among holders have not increased—they’ve actually decreased. A key factor here is the timing: it occurred over the weekend. Institutional players like market makers and hedge funds typically adjust their positions only during weekday trading hours, starting Monday. Thus, yesterday’s move can simply be understood as an “exchange-driven dump.” Whether this was intended to trigger liquidations or serve another purpose, we won’t speculate on conspiracies. But since October 14, open interest (OI) in perpetual contracts has been steadily accumulating, with each pullback failing to reduce positions—and yesterday’s drop also failed to achieve meaningful deleveraging. Currently, new positions have opened on both the long and short sides. A significant volatility move is likely ahead; it just depends on which side gets triggered first.
