
This could be the second signal point of the Seller Exhaustion Index. On August 11 of this year, the BTC Seller Exhaustion Index provided us with the final precise bottoming signal before the market rally. It simultaneously measures low volatility and high losses; a signal is triggered when both conditions are met. Historically, the Seller Exhaustion Index only enters the “extreme exhaustion zone” (red area) during cycle bottoms. Once the bottom structure is broken, it becomes extremely difficult to reappear—even if prices fall further, the index does not reach lower levels (labeled 1 and 2 in the chart). Therefore, in a single cycle, if you missed the “lowest point 1,” you should strive to capture the “second-lowest point 2.” As I wrote in my tweet on August 11 this year: “The certainty of point 2 is higher than point 1; however, the risk is that point 2’s price may also be higher than point 1.” Now, “point 2” has appeared! Just a few days ago, when BTC price retraced to $77,000, the Seller Exhaustion Index formed the second-lowest point of this cycle (only higher than the August reading this year). Of course, I don’t know what will happen in the coming weeks or months—but this is where we stand today. So here’s the question: Will you bet that another lower signal point 2 is still coming, or will you believe this is truly “point 2” of this cycle? Unfortunately, I cannot give you a definitive recommendation or answer. Because when point 1 appeared, I chose to believe unconditionally—so now… I no longer need to choose. It’s your time to shine, bro! 🔥
