$BTC Wyckoff Pattern Repeating
Bitcoin in 2026 is displaying a structure remarkably similar to GBP/USD in 2001 — clear Selling Climax, followed by Automatic Rally, Spring test of the low, and current positioning between support and resistance.
These patterns persist across assets and eras because market behavior is driven by the same human psychology: panic selling at lows, FOMO buying at highs, and disciplined accumulation during uncertainty
BREAKING: 🇺🇸 MICHAEL SAYLOR JUST ANNOUNCED TO BUY A LOT MORE BITCOIN
THEY ARE BUYING 100X MORE OF WHAT THEY SOLD
HERE WE GO 🚀
Square Daily Report | June 9
1️⃣ Geopolitical Situation: Media reports suggest Trump is pressuring Netanyahu to stop expanding strikes on Iran, easing Middle East tensions and boosting U.S. stocks, with semiconductor indices rising over 5%, and Intel surging 11%.
2️⃣ Market Dynamics: BTC is priced at $63,080; ETH at $1,696, with the ETH/BTC ratio falling back to 2016 levels, indicating institutional funds continue to concentrate in Bitcoin.
3️⃣ Macro Trends: The U.S. stock market capitalization to GDP ratio has risen to 238%, a new all-time high; Korea's KOSDAQ index triggered a circuit breaker again after an 8% decline, with trading paused for 20 minutes.
4️⃣ Institutional Views: JPMorgan states that strategy needs to rebuild dollar reserves to restore market confidence; also notes that the probability of passing crypto legislation within the year is below 50%.
5️⃣ TradFi Dynamics: The U.S. stock market capitalization to GDP ratio has reached a record high of 238%, reigniting concerns over market valuation bubbles.
StrongNonfarmPayrollsRekindleRateHikeFear* - markets got hit with that exact vibe this month. Strong jobs = "uh oh, Fed might hike again".
1. *The May NFP data that sparked it*
*May 2026 NFP*: +172,000 jobs added vs 88,000 expected - nearly double
*Unemployment*: Held steady at 4.3%
*Market reaction*: Stocks sold off, dollar surged to 2-month high
2. *Why this rekindled hike fear*
*Rate hike odds jumped*:
- *Kalshi prediction market*: 52% chance of hike this year, up from 25.3%
- *CME FedWatch*: 50% chance of higher rate this year
- *CoinCentral*: Hike odds hit 68.3% vs 50.4% day before, "effectively ruling out near-term cuts"
*Fed context*:
1. *Core inflation* still sticky at 3.3% y/y in April
2. *Fed Chair Kevin Warsh* now leading - market expects him to signal willingness to raise if inflation worries grow
3. *Goldman Sachs* pushed
#Fed delays 2% inflation target *#SpaceX lowers IPO valuation* - yep, SpaceX trimmed the target after investor feedback. Biggest IPO ever is still coming, but at a lower price.
1. *What changed*
*Original talk in April*: $2T+ valuation floated after confidential S-1 filing
*Current target*: *$1.75T - $1.8T* 6b2d5068
*Deal terms*:
- *$135 per share*, fixed price - no range
- *555.6M shares* to be sold
- *$75B raise* - would be the largest IPO in history ac495068846d
Marketing starts June 4, pricing as early as June 11 9e32
2. *Why they lowered it*
1. *Investor pushback*: After S-1 dropped May 20, the $2T price-to-sales of 107x spooked investors. Even $1.8T = 96x 2025 sales
2. *Losses + cash burn*: $18.67B revenue in 2025, but $4.94B net loss. Q1 2026 another $4.3B loss. Capex doubled to $20.7B
3. *AI uncertainty*: xAI unit lost $6.4B in 2025 on $3.2B revenue. Morningstar calls xAI moat “indeterminate” + “material threat of value destruction” 35f850688b82
3. *Valuation debate*
*SpaceX/Musk view*: $28.5T TAM - $26.5T from AI + space data centers, only $370B from “space solutions”. Betting on orbital data centers + AI infrastructure edae
*Bears view*:
- *Morningstar*: $780B fair value - 48% below IPO target
- *Aswath Damodaran*: ∼$1.3T
- *MarketWatch*: “Leaves virtually zero room for error” 50684055edae
4. *Why it still matters*
1. *Size*: $75B raise would dwarf any IPO ever. Only ∼4.2% of float
2. *Index impact*: Fast-track into Nasdaq 100 + S&P 500 in 6 months. Forces index funds to buy
3. *Retail angle*: Up to 30% allocation to retail investors - Musk’s cult following
4. *Lockup*: Staggered - 20% after Q2 earnings, then 10% if +30%, then 7% tranches 6b2d8b82ac49
*Bottom line*: SpaceX came back down to earth from $2T to $1.75T-$1.8T. Still a “vision price, not cash-flow price”. You’re buying Musk + Starlink profits + xAI/AI data center dreams, not 2025 earnings. 50683078
This IPO will test if public markets have room for trillion-dollar AI+space bets. If it works, expect OpenAI + Anthropic to follow. f2cc
You planning to try for the retail allocation or wait for post-IPO dip?
#Quantum risk concerns Bitcoin
Key Developments to Watch Today
Critical Data: US March Producer Price Index (PPI) data (15:30 GMT+3). This data, a leading indicator of inflation, will clarify the Fed's interest rate path.
Diplomacy Table: Israeli and Lebanese representatives are expected to meet in Washington; a historic meeting for regional stability.
IMF Meetings: Simultaneously with Oeda's US visit, global liquidity messages from the G20 and IMF meetings will be monitored.
Iran's Move: Claims that Iran is considering halting uranium enrichment as a condition for ending the conflict are the strongest bargaining chip on the table.
Crypto markets are climbing! 🚀 Bitcoin (BTC) is around $70,736, and Ethereum (ETH) is at $2,146. The surge is driven by:
- *Geopolitical Tensions*: Middle East conflicts boosting energy prices and crypto interest
- *Regulatory News*: US crypto regulations expected to progress
- *Institutional Investment*: Big players increasing crypto allocations
*Top Cryptos:*
- *Bitcoin (BTC)*: $70,736, +4.43%
- *Ethereum (ETH)*: $2,146, +2.47%
- *Solana (SOL)*: $88.13, -0.41%
Analysts predict further gains, but watch out for volatility 🙏💙💛
