StrongNonfarmPayrollsRekindleRateHikeFear* - markets got hit with that exact vibe this month. Strong jobs = "uh oh, Fed might hike again".
1. *The May NFP data that sparked it*
*May 2026 NFP*: +172,000 jobs added vs 88,000 expected - nearly double
*Unemployment*: Held steady at 4.3%
*Market reaction*: Stocks sold off, dollar surged to 2-month high
2. *Why this rekindled hike fear*
*Rate hike odds jumped*:
- *Kalshi prediction market*: 52% chance of hike this year, up from 25.3%
- *CME FedWatch*: 50% chance of higher rate this year
- *CoinCentral*: Hike odds hit 68.3% vs 50.4% day before, "effectively ruling out near-term cuts"
*Fed context*:
1. *Core inflation* still sticky at 3.3% y/y in April
2. *Fed Chair Kevin Warsh* now leading - market expects him to signal willingness to raise if inflation worries grow
3. *Goldman Sachs* pushed
