
I think sentiment in Bitcoin right now is a direct reflection of this being the slowest long-term holder recovery from a bear market bottom. 7.5 million BTC were underwater on June 30th when we bottomed at $58.5k. 125 days later, 72% of that supply is still in loss. Day 125 in past cycles had 66%, 50%, and 32% of long term supply in loss comparatively. Past cycles took between 14-22 months to reach zero LTH supply in loss, but price is only +31% off the low vs. 1.75-2.55x at this stage before. The time pain and boredom being felt right now is making me bullish. From this same point in past cycles, the median BTC return: 6M: +23% 1Y: +113% 18M: +158% 2Y: +272% Positive in 10 of 12 windows.
