
It's officially election day. History says stocks are heading higher. In fact, the S&P 500 has closed GREEN in the year following every US Midterm election since 1980. As we noted in our analysis yesterday, we believe recent weakness in markets is largely a function of the uncertainty around Midterm elections. However, when this uncertainty dissipates, markets react positively. Since 1980, the S&P 500 has averaged a +14% gain in the 12 months following US Midterm elections. Furthermore, even after divided-government outcomes, the index has averaged a +15% one-year gain, compared to +12% under single-party control. Of course, the near-term picture will come with volatility and change. But, if history is any guide, it's a great time to be bullish. Turn on our post notifications at @KobeissiLetter for real-time analysis as this develops.
