It's easy to be bullish on Bitcoin. The 4-year moving average of Bitcoin's realized price is the market’s smoothed cost basis. It is the slow, load-bearing floor under the entire asset, and it is still compounding at over 25% a year after a full decade of adoption. YoY growth of the 4Y realized price MA: 2014: $101.41 - baseline 2015: $173.28 - 70.87% 2016: $259.03 - 49.49% 2017: $575.93 - 122.34% 2018: $1,771.48 - 207.59% 2019: $2,954.05 - 66.76% 2020: $4,404.72 - 49.11% 2021: $8,872.92 - 101.44% 2022: $13,243.06 - 49.25% 2023: $17,061.38 - 28.83% 2024: $23,065.68 - 35.19% 2025: $30,509.71 - 32.27% 2026 (trailing 12M): $36,979.01 - 26.65% Three halvings, three “generational” crashes, and countless obituaries later, the smoothed floor still compounds at 25–35% a year: