$SMH versus the S&P is in a full-blown bear market on the higher timeframe. Momentum, money flow, and structure all agree. Semiconductors will likely keep underperforming the S&P and keep going lower against it. That relative bear market has at least another 4–8 months left. Countertrend rallies will show up. Chasing these names into them is still a mistake. The rotation trade is the one that keeps playing out, and it stays in play for the foreseeable future. A major bounce followed by a break of the lower-high structure inside the next 90 days would mean I'm wrong. The data does not favor that outcome. No hype. No bias. Just data.