STH profits surged yesterday, with their cost basis near $76 000. bitcoin:native is now testing their conviction. The STH MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) is approaching the neutral zone of 1, after climbing above 1.18 in late September, its highest level since July 2025. By comparing market value to the realized value of STH, we can identify periods of short-term overvaluation or undervaluation in the market. As a result, STH were holding their highest profits in over a year. We can also see that the STH cost basis has been rising since mid-August, when it stood at $67 500, a sign that STH have accompanied Bitcoin’s rally over the same period. Now that Bitcoin’s medium-term momentum has turned positive, this neutral MVRV level for STH could act as a price zone where STH step into action, either by buying more or by capitulating, as we saw yesterday. It’s always a mix of both, but it remains to be seen whether conviction will win out.