Last week Strategy has acquired 811 $BTC and repurchased $208M of $STRC. They hold 849 327 BTC now https://t.co/glh48ZtTab
I came across this bitcoin:native chart again, which I built two years ago. It tracks the amount of capital in profit held by a cohort we can broadly consider traders, even though these are spot holdings, as it only includes coins last moved one to three months ago. This offers insights into market trends and potential price movements. High unrealized profits often point to potential selling pressure. When traders hold substantial unrealized gains, the incentive to take profits grows, increasing the risk of a market correction. Negative unrealized profits suggest that many Bitcoin traders are holding positions at or below their entry prices. This can signal that the market is approaching a bottom, potentially creating buying opportunities. Of course, this metric is less useful during bear markets. But given that the bear market is over, this is the first time since then that this cohort has come under pressure, with estimated unrealized losses currently standing at $452M.
STH profits surged yesterday, with their cost basis near $76 000. bitcoin:native is now testing their conviction. The STH MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) is approaching the neutral zone of 1, after climbing above 1.18 in late September, its highest level since July 2025. By comparing market value to the realized value of STH, we can identify periods of short-term overvaluation or undervaluation in the market. As a result, STH were holding their highest profits in over a year. We can also see that the STH cost basis has been rising since mid-August, when it stood at $67 500, a sign that STH have accompanied Bitcoin’s rally over the same period. Now that Bitcoin’s medium-term momentum has turned positive, this neutral MVRV level for STH could act as a price zone where STH step into action, either by buying more or by capitulating, as we saw yesterday. It’s always a mix of both, but it remains to be seen whether conviction will win out.
STHs have now been in profit on average for almost 2 months. With an estimated cost basis of $76 500, their average profit on bitcoin:native currently stands at 5.5%. That's quite small compared to barely a month ago, when their unrealized profits had climbed to 20% on average. The last time they held that much profit was shortly before the October 2025 top. So it was no surprise to see the market consolidate for a while as STHs realized profits. Still, the profits are still there, and their cost basis remains an interesting support level where STHs could step in to defend their average entry price.
Average demand estimate is currently negative at -19,000 bitcoin:native Futures, which had been filling the gap left by weak spot demand, have recently declined, reaching -58,000 BTC on the spot side versus +39,000 BTC on the futures side. Selling pressure has also eased, though even the slightest move on thin volume triggers sudden volatility.