
I went back and pulled every single 2%+ down day since 1996 where $SPY was still above its 200 day moving average. Not the last 3. Not the ones that fit my thesis. All 77 of them. Here's what happened next... SPY rallied at least 2.9% within the next 22 trading days 66% of the time. On a normal day above the 200 day? That number is only 49%. Why 2.9% and why 22 days? Because that's exactly the move from today's close to 779. And 22 trading days from today lands on December 2nd. The last 10 times it happened. 9/28/21: hit it in 14 days 11/26/21: hit it in 14 days 2/3/22: missed 2/21/23: missed 7/24/24: hit it in 18 days 9/3/24: hit it in 11 days 12/18/24: hit it in 21 days 10/10/25: hit it in 6 days 1/20/26: hit it in 6 days 6/5/26: missed 7 out of 10. I'm not panicking. This is what a dip in an uptrend looks like. Same signals. Same target. $SPY 779 by December 2nd. Again, the same signals that called for 755 by October 30th are calling for 779 by 12/2. Also worth noting that the $VIX hit a TRIPLE extreme today. Not just an extreme. Not just a double extreme. A triple extreme. I am fully loaded I have 14 $QQQ November calls I have 4 $SPY January calls — Obnoxious Bull Jonesy $SPX $SPY #SP500 $ES_F $QQQ $NDX $CL_F #US10Y $TLT
