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TraderJonesy

Following0Followers (X)28.8KPosts414Likes22.11K
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I WILL BE LIVE ALL DAY TOMORROW TO HAND HOLD ALL MY FOLLOWERS AND BUILD YOUR CONFIDENCE IN WHAT I AM SEEING! MARK MY WORDS, THE NASTY BEARS WILL PAY FOR THEIR ACTIONS!! P.S. My automated 10K $SPY bot took one trade on Monday and grabbed $97. It's up about $500 (+5%) in its first 8 days in the market. The crazy thing? These 8 days have been absolute ass in the market. And this bot just keeps nailing it, collecting premium while everyone else panics. Starting next week, I’m rolling the $SPY bot via $SPX with about 50k to trail out the executions with SPX alongside the SPY BOT. And tomorrow? It's sitting out. It knows when NOT to trade. That's the part most traders never learn. Nevertheless, in terms of what I'm doing specifically with my own judgment and trades, I am taking the opportunity on this dip to roll my QQQ calls if we open up at the quarterly implied low. I'm taking the opportunity to add to my SPY calls if we open up at 740. — TJ 
#SPX #SPY #SP500 #ES_F #QQQ #NDX #CL_F #US10Y #TLT

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SCREENSHOT THIS NOW AND REMEMBER ME ON DECEMBER 2ND!!! The market is getting WRECKED on midterm night and everyone's panicking. History says this is the gift. Since 1950 there have been 19 midterm elections. The S&P 500 was higher 12 months later in ALL 19. 6 months later. Up 19 out of 19. Average +13.6% 12 months later. Up 19 out of 19. Average +14.9% The 4 times it sold off the day after (1974, 1990, 1994, 2022)? All 4 were higher 3 months later AND a year later. Fair warning that 2018 dipped another 10% into Christmas before ripping. And if you've been following along, I do think we're going to see the larger leg down, but I don't think it's here just yet. And we've seen this exact setup before. Back in March, $SPY fell 6% from the 2 hour imbalance. Everyone thought the floor was gone. By day 14, price was back up, taking that imbalance out. Today we're on day 14 AGAIN. The imbalance is sitting at 779. Here's my call that you all have heard me say 779 by December 2nd. Here's exactly what I'm doing. $SPY: I have 4 January 760 calls at a $27.09 average, down about 12% at today's close. If we see 740, the big node on the map, I'm buying 2 more. I'll probably sell a cash secured put too. $QQQ: My calls normally roll on November 9th per my system rules. But if we tag the quarterly implied low like we are right now in the overnight at the open tomorrow, I'm rolling them right then and adding size. This is the first leg down in a three wave move. Wave A down, wave B up, then wave C later on. Wave B is the one that I’m trading right now. It's never as good as it seems and it's never as bad as it seems. The people selling tonight are handing their shares to the people who read history. This is an overreaction and it's leaving a LOT of unfinished business to the upside. I'm not selling. I'm BUYING. Bookmark this. And remember me on December 2nd. 🤝 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! — TJ $SPX $SPY #SP500 $ES_F $QQQ $NDX $CL_F #US10Y $TLT

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Market selling off after hours and I got up and came straight to eating tacos at 8:44 Eastern to the one place open.. eating them as we speak making this post. Here's why I'm not stressing. $QQQ has its daily, weekly AND quarterly implied lows all stacked at 660-670. Three levels on top of each other, with 2 months still left in the quarter. $SPY loses 750? (Is in after hours) Straight shot to the 740 node. Fine by me. Lots of unfinished business to the upside. This is not the real move down to the low 700s. This is a bear trap. The bears are giving it everything they've got and they're about to get squeezed. We get 779 before we get 715. 779 by December 2nd. Gap down tomorrow? Yes it stings. But I’m taking advantage of it. I'm buying the shit out of it. I will sell another cash secured put on SPY if we see the 740 node, a couple of more calls for January, and I'm rolling all of my November 20th calls for $QQQ into at the money strikes to improve the delta and exposure while sitting at a quarterly implied low. Why? Because that quarterly implied low is a major level and the bears are trying to short this thinking we're going down to the depths of hell crashing. We are not. They're going to get squeezed and their faces ripped within the next month. Mark my words. Send it there. I DARE YOU. 740 by 12/2 on $QQQ 779 by 12/2 on $SPY I am not worried Thank y'all for your attention to these matters. — Obnoxious Bull Jonesy $SPX $SPY #SP500 $ES_F $QQQ $NDX $CL_F #US10Y $TLT

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Hey $SPY, why couldn't you do that earlier today in the cash session? Futures traders eating while the rest of us watch. I envy you guys 🤣 https://t.co/w1b1sZY9UJ

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Something that's been driving me nuts on here. A lot of people (not naming names) throw out vague posts. "Here's this node." Okay... do you think price actually gets there? "Look at this flow." Okay... are you actually following it? Then moments later: "You're welcome." Lol They never say at the time. That way they can never be wrong. And it's all over my For You page, so if I'm seeing it, I know a lot of my followers are seeing it too. Everything I post has a clear message. Right or wrong, you know exactly where I stand. The thesis. The deadline. The timeline. How I'm positioned. Explained like you're 5. And when I put a thesis out there, I tell you straight up. I could be wrong, I could be right, this is where I'm leaning and this is how I'm positioned. Could I post vague stuff and look like a saint every time? Sure. Instead I give the trolls more fuel because I'd rather my followers know EXACTLY what the objective is than play it safe for my own image. I'm not changing that. Everyone knows I bag held one SPY January 760 call from the 775 area all the way down to the 750s, then slammed three more and now I'm holding four. Troll me, I don't care. That after hours session when we tagged 775 with a quick pop and rejection? I missed it completely because I was too busy taking profit on my STX position at the very exact time. LOL. Because you realize I run a stock fund, momentum fund, my main fund, a 10k fund and a 10k automated SPY fund right? Lol. That's the difference. I'll tell you when I'm wrong too. But I'm sick of the vague stuff. I've honestly had to start muting people. No disrespect but a lot of the same people saying they "caught the move down" were the same people calling for 790 and new highs. I have a lot of respect for a lot of people on here. If I follow you, you already know that's 100% respect. The moral of the rant is be careful who you follow. Be careful who you're paying attention to. Anyone can call a move after it happens. Ask who called it BEFORE, with a level and a deadline laid out perfectly clear. So here's mine, laid out perfectly clear for the billionth time. The same exact thing that called for 755 by October 30th (which I missed) is the same exact thing calling for 779 by December 2nd (which I have no intention of missing). We're finishing up wave A. Wave B is next and the leg C after that is what I'm actually looking for. So far, I like the reaction off 750. Will they get 740? I don't know. A lot of it depends on the election. But the largest node on the $SPY map is at 740 but also dissipating at the moment, which also happens to be the worst case spot for wave A to finish (the 0.618). Any further dip to the weekly implied low on $QQQ, which happens to be the quarterly implied low too that I talked about yesterday, is nothing but an opportunity for a move much higher towards the 730s. If we get the weekly and quarterly implied lows on QQQ, I will be taking advantage of it. (I am leaning that we don't). The larger move down is not here in my opinion. We get 779 before we get 715. Here's to the next one. 🍻🍻 — TJ $SPX #SP500 $ES_F $QQQ $NDX $CL_F #US10Y $TLT

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In midterm years, October is where the low usually gets put in. I went back through every midterm year since 1986. Here's when the S&P 500 made its 4th quarter low and what it did through December 31st. 1986: low Oct 1. Q4 finished +4.7% 1990: low Oct 11. Q4 finished +7.9% 1994: low Dec 8. Q4 finished -0.7% 1998: low Oct 8. Q4 finished +20.9% 2002: low Oct 9. Q4 finished +7.9% 2006: low Oct 2. Q4 finished +6.2% 2010: low Oct 4. Q4 finished +10.2% 2014: low Oct 15. Q4 finished +4.4% 2018: low Dec 24. Q4 finished -14.0% 2022: low Oct 12. Q4 finished +7.1% 8 out of 10 times, the low came in October, and the market rallied into year end. Average Q4: +5.5%. Go back to 1950 and it's the same story. 19 midterms, 14 October lows. Now here's the part that matters for this year. The 2 times the low DIDN'T come in October, 1994 and 2018, the market kept bleeding into December. Both finished Q4 red. 2018 dropped 14% and didn't bottom until Christmas Eve. So where's 2026? The S&P 500 closed September at 7,651. It's sitting at 7,551 right now, down 1.3% for the quarter. And the lowest close of Q4 so far? Yesterday. There's been no October low. No bounce. This year is following the exceptions, not the rule. And my monthly signal just flipped bearish. History says the midterm low usually comes in October and it's off to the races. But when it doesn't, the drop tends to come later, into December. Right now 2026 is acting a lot more like 1994 and 2018 than the rest. I'm not saying it has to happen. I'm saying I'm watching it closely, and I'm not going to ignore it just because "Q4 is usually bullish." Even in 1994 and 2018, once the low finally came, it rallied into the end of the year. So the question isn't IF the low comes. It's WHERE. Nothing changes about my probabilities and what I'm expecting. I still think we'll see 779 by December 2nd, but we could easily sell off after that for the rest of the year. We'll keep taking it level by level. Just know, 8 out of 10 times the low came in October and the market rallied into year end. A couple of times it kept going lower first. I'm watching that closely. The biggest thing is: respect the range, respect the TTM squeeze. We've been in the same range for 92 days now, and the TTM squeeze on the daily and weekly has been squeezing for 92 days. And for the love of goodness' sake, respect the 2 hour imbalances. They've been some of the most reliable magnets on the chart over the last 2 years, and price keeps going back to fill the ones sitting close by. So the plan stays the same. We lose 750, hop out, de risk, and reposition down in the 740s. Either way, I see 779 by December 2nd. — Obnoxious Bull Jonesy $SPX $SPY #SP500 $ES_F $QQQ $NDX $CL_F #US10Y $TLT

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A lot of people are freaking out about $GOOGL. I say it's a good buying opportunity. There's a gap there at 272, so anything in the low 270s is a stellar deal in my opinion. You're back at 2025 levels. And one thing to mention is November and December seasonality. And given the fact that Google is hitting levels that haven't been seen since March and levels that were defended in 2025? I'll take that.

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9.62 million of that 14 million was one buyer. $SPY. I will be tracking this. We did see some good flow coming in today as well on top of everything else we are tracking. Biggest thing with Flow is making sure you're not adding up millions and millions of orders and calling it unusual. The biggest thing is finding size, time, and urgency, and making sure your signals also back it. We don't care about millions of flows added up together. We care about the individual buyers. This guy is always dropping good flow! Sometimes I forget to! Not a bad follow! ⬇️

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THIS IS FOR MY MOFOKIN BULLS! I REPEAT!!! PUMP THIS SHIT AND EAT TACOS TONIGHT! Loaded with that good stuff and green guacamole!! I repeat!! PUMP THIS MOFO! $SPY — Obnoxious Bull Jonesy 🙃😆 $SPX $SPY #SP500 $ES_F $QQQ $NDX $CL_F #US10Y $TLT https://t.co/6lMg8Dn1kX