
SPACEX’S $470B CAPEX BILL MAY BE LESS SCARY THAN IT LOOKS 🚀 Everyone’s focused on how $SPCX will fund its 13 GW buildout. But AI revenue could ramp much faster than the market expects. My model points to: 🔹 $314B in FY2027 revenue 🔸 $122B in Q4 2027 alone 🔹 ~$90B in cash already on the balance sheet If operating cash flow and existing cash cover ~$290B of capex, SpaceX would need to raise roughly $180B in debt, less than 1x its projected year-end EBITDA run rate. Of course, that depends on execution. If capacity ramps slower, revenue falls, but capex needs should also come down. 📉 A correction toward $100 is still possible. But from H2 2027, once the risks tied to insider share unlocks fade, I expect $SPCX to resume its climb.